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Rain & snow shield wrapping up nicely in Red River Valley & NW MN today on northwest side of deepening low. Lightning & thunder reported on front edge of rain shield near Park Rapids and Bemidji...that indicates strong updrafts capable of producing "thundersnow" with heavy snowfall rates of 1" to 2"+ per hour today in NW MN as cold air works in from the west.

Look for heaviest snowfall rates in Red River Valley & NW MN through 6pm tonight. Grand Forks NWS already reports 3" in Grand Forks and snowing briskly as of 7 am.

0700 AM  HEAVY SNOW  GRAND FORKS  10/04/2012  M3.0 INCH  GRAND FORKS ND   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

 snow totals according to fairly reliable NAM model output

  Winds gusting 40 to 50 mph could create blizzard & "whiteout" conditions Thursday

Updated Thursday language from the Grand Forks NWS:

 Cold front reached metro - temps falling through 50s into 40s by late Thursday

Winter 2012-'13: 1st major winter storm comes early for Red River Valley & NW MN

The season's 1st major winter storm is pounding eastern North Dakota, the Red River Valley, and northwest Minnesota today. By the time it winds down Friday, a wind whipped coating of 6" to 12"+ will fall in some areas.

A rapidly deepening low pressure storm will track from Sioux Falls to St. Cloud by Thursday morning, to International Falls by lunchtime Thursday. That track favors heavy snow in the Red River Valley region.

Rain changes to snow overnight into early Thursday as cold air feeds in from Canada behind the low. Snowfall rates will be heavy- up to 1" to 2" per hour Thursday morning and midday in NW MN.

The NAM model is the most aggressive and lays down a band of 6" to 12"+ over the RRV including Grand Forks. , Northwest Minnesota's Kittson County (Hallock & Karlstad) is in the snow "bull's eye" where the NAM suggests as much as 12" to 16" snowfall.

Source: NOAA NAM model via  http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=MVX

These totals may be on the high side....but they are possible given the intense deepening of the system. If the cold air arrives in time, many locations in and around the Red River Valley will see a foot of snow by Friday morning.

Wind: Blizzard to whiteout conditions possible:

I am very concerned about the rapid onset of potentially blizzard like conditions with this system Thursday. Winds will ramp up to between 20 and 40mph, with gusts to near 50mph possible by Midday.

Heavy snow and driving winds may create near "whiteout" conditions.

Early start: Snow arrives about 1 month early

This snow will fall much closer to early season October snowfall records than to "average." The earliest 1" of snowfall on record in Grand Forks is October 2, 1950. The average 1st inch is 

This early season winter storm is coming a full month earlier than average. This early snow storm seems to fit with the pattern I hinted at two weeks ago in an 

Stay tuned for updates as the snow flies!

Weather and Climate News

Updraft® - Minnesota Weather News

Paul Huttner

Author

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“Snowtober” Update: Red River Valley Winter Storm rages; 6″to 12″ whiteout

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