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Metro severe risk fades this afternoon, but severe watch possible just south and east

Timing is everything. A watched pot won't boil.

The timing of a passing cool front before "max heating" in the metro means the best chances for developing thunderstorms is south and east of the Twin Cities. I can't rule out a stray storm over the metro this afternoon, but the best chance for storms is rapidly shifting south and east of the Twin Cities.

Check out the early PM GOES 1km visible shot, with wind "streamlines" and dew points overlaid. You can see the 70 degree dew points right over the metro...and the wind shift line, or front, moving in with much drier air.

The best chances for a line of strong to severe storms has now shifted to areas just southeast of the Twin Cities. Mankato, Waseca, Rochester, Winona, La Crosse and Eau Claire should keep an eye out for strong storms and possible watches and warnings this afternoon and evening.

This is going to be a very different weather week in Minnesota.

We (enjoyed?) what was probably the hottest week of the year in Minnesota last week. Temps ran 6 to 13 degrees above average...and we logged three consecutive days at or above 92 in the metro during the "heat wave" last week.

A cool front sweeps through Minnesota today bringing scattered thunderstorms, then a noticeably cooler and refreshing air mass. From 3 days in the 90s with high humidity last week... to 3 days in the 70s with lows in the 50s this week? Welcome to "summer" in Minnesota.

Look for scattered  thunderstorms to favor southeast Minnesota and southwest Wisconsin as the front sweeps through today. A few of the storms could be severe packing high winds and hail.

It will be a race against time to see if storms are able to fire today before the front moves through the Twin Cities metro area around midday. The most unstable air will be ahead of the front, and storms will tend to develop this afternoon as more heat kicks in. If the front clears the metro before storms can develop or become severe, then some (metro) areas may escape storms and beneficial rainfall. Here's the GOES 1km visible shot from this morning as the front approaches.

Dew points are in the upper 60s to near 70 near the front, and that will provide enough fuel for the possibility of severe storms. Biggest threats? High winds and hail.

Here's the weather geek speak verbiage in the "convective outlook."

The cool front will clear the metro area by around 3 p.m. or so and push any thunderstorms into Wisconsin and southeast Minnesota later in the day and evening.

We may be searching for July later this week.

You can give the AC a rest for sure by tonight. Temps as cool as the 50s have been lurking in southern Canada behind the front. Don't be shocked if temps dip into the upper 50s in the metro suburbs Tuesday morning. Upper 40s up north near International Falls to the Boundary Waters Canoe Area will feel downright "Septemberish."

Hopefully the extra blanket is still close at hand?

Highs may not climb out of the 70s later this week. Here are forecast highs for Tuesday. Note the 80s getting shoved well south,and no 90s on the map.

Here's the National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration's NAM model showing today's front sweeping through -- as cooler Canadian high pressure builds in with a north wind this week. (click to animate)

Here's the meteogram this week from Iowa State as temps crash about 15 degrees from last week.

Keep an eye out for storms today...and keep the long sleeves handy later this week!

Weather and Climate News

Updraft® - Minnesota Weather News

Paul Huttner

Author

Metro severe risk fades this afternoon, but severe watch possible just south and east Weather cliches seem to be apt today. Timing is everything. A watched pot won’t boil. The timing of a passing cool front before “max heating” in the metro means the best chances for developing thunderstorms is south and east of the Twin Cities.…

Strong storms could hit southeast Minnesota and southwest Wisconsin

Go Deeper.

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