Clipped by some PM snow, 3″+ rainfall soaks NYC suburbs

Clipperville

This will be one of those days where the weather is vastly different depending on where you travel in Minnesota.

If you are heading up north to Duluth and beyond, expect some snow today and tonight. If you are in the Twin Cities, some stray flakes will favor the northeast metro. If you are heading for southern Minnesota, a few clouds and dry roads will greet you.

An Alberta Clipper type system spins through the Upper Midwest today and tonight. Click on the map below to watch the nor'easter pull rapidly into Canada Thanksgiving Day, and watch our little follow up clipper sail through.

An elongated inverted trough of low pressure will trigger some snow northeast of a line from Bemidji, Minn., to Red Wing, Minn. The snow will be heavy and prolonged enough to accumulate in northern Minnesota, where 1 to 3 inches will fall along a line from Bemidji to Grand Rapids, Minn., to Duluth.

Farther north, more persistent heavy snow may leave a good 3 inches to 7-plus inches and a narrow snowfall bull's eye could dump as much as 7 inches to 10 inches along the Gunflint Trail and in the hills above Grand Marais, Minn.

Here's the snowfall solution from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's North American Mesoscale Forecast System.

The Duluth National Weather Service is placing its bets on snow with a winter weather advisory.

If you are heading north today through Thanksgiving Day, expect to see some snow.

Twin Cities grazed by PM snow showers?

Most of the models keep the snow just northeast of the metro, but a few outliers do bring in some snow showers into the metro between about 2 p.m. and 7 p.m. tonight. If the trajectory is just right, there could be a period of light snow in the metro sometime during the afternoon rush today. Probably not a big deal, but we know it doesn't take much snow to grease things up with temps in the 20s.

My hunch is that snow showers will favor the northeast metro, but be aware of the possibility this afternoon into early evening.

Quiet Thanksgiving weekend

Overall it looks blissfully quiet this holiday weekend. Temps will begin to moderate into the 30s by Black Friday where the only traffic jams should be in the mall and big box parking lots.

Next week looks a little more interesting. Temps may moderate into the low 40s by Wednesday with a rain snow mix ahead of the next advancing arctic front.

I don't see the season's first big one (snow) yet, but then again it usually doesn't show up on the weather maps until about two to four days before the event. Food for forecast thought.

Nor'easter rages today, pulls quickly out Thanksgiving Day

More than 3 inches of rain has fallen in the New York City suburbs and north into New Haven, Conn.

Flash flood warnings were issued early today from the NYC NWS office.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

FLASH FLOOD WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY

541 AM EST WED NOV 27 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON NY HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...

FAIRFIELD COUNTY IN SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...

WESTERN NEW HAVEN COUNTY IN SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...

WESTCHESTER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...

ROCKLAND COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...

* UNTIL 930 AM EST.

* AT 532 AM EST...FLASH FLOODING WAS REPORTED ON THE BRONX RIVER PARKWAY IN SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER COUNTY. FLASH FLOODING IS ALSO EXPECTED ELSEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

* UP TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN HAD FALLEN IN PARTS OF THE WARNED AREA...AND ANOTHER 1 TO LOCALLY UP 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING.

Dialing back a bit on inland snowfall totals

Some warmer air has mixed the inland snow to rain at times, and local NWS offices have dialed back a bit on snowfall. Still, some areas could pick up close to a foot.