Seasonably mild; another sloppy system misses Minnesota

Relatively mild air riding over the icy landscape induced fog and low clouds to form last night. Temperatures held fairly steady overnight and have risen nicely into the 30s in some places. At 4 p.m it was 34 degrees at Montevideo, Minn., and Dodge Center, Minn.

Dense fog was hampering travel in some locations. The visibility was down to a quarter mile at Alexandria, Minn., at 4 p.m.

Another soggy weather system is already dumping generous rainfall on the area that received heavy snow on Sunday.  This swath of precipitation will run into colder air is it advances north into Wisconsin.

radar 340pm
Screen capture of rain at 340 p.m. CST. Image:Wunderground.com

Here's a National Weather Service map forecasting snow and rain accumulation over the next seven days. Note the heaviest precipitation in the Pacific Northwest, along the Gulf Coast and on the east coast of the United States.

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Seven day rainfall
Liquid precipitation forecast for the next seven days. Image:NOAA Weather Predction Center

A surface low will track on a path that is likely to keep the precipitation wet snow and sleet in parts of central Wisconsin tonight.  A freezing rain advisory is in effect for Milwaukee, Wis., overnight.

Surface low track
Track of sufrace low pressure center. Image:National Weather Service.

The most likely area to receive around four inches of snow is through central Wisconsin into upper Michigan.

Four inch snowfall chances
Probability of snowfall of four inches or more tonight into Saturday morning. Image:NOAA
Wintry weather
Wintry weather to remain mostly east of Minnesota.

The upper Midwest is likely to experience a flow from Alberta, Canada with only minor weather systems moving through our region in the next few days.  So it appears the snow drought will continue for much of Minnesota.

For a snowfall comparison: Indianapolis, Ind., has tallied 27 inches of snow since Dec. 1, while the Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport has measured a mere 16.2 inches of snow.

We have come up a little shy on moisture in some regions of the state this winter. A  lack of moisture is a concern. A mid-winter drought in Minnesota  typically doesn't have much of an impact at this time of year. Let's see what the rest of winter and early spring deliver with regard to precipitation.

thirty day precipiation
Precipitation the last 30 days. Image:Midwest Regional Climate Center

Saturday looks to be a good day to get out and partake in outdoor activities. Temperatures will be a few degrees about the normal for this time of year.

Fort Snelling is hosting a National Winter Trails Day event beginning at 11 a.m. on Saturday. The Minnesota Department of Natural Resources says it's the "perfect opportunity for anyone new to snow sports to try snowshoeing, cross-country skiing, geocaching and other outdoor winter activities."

The mercury is expected to go above the thawing mark on Sunday, so there might be some melting taking place.

Maximum temperatures on Sunday
Predicted highs for Sunday from the National Weather Service.

A bit of a breeze shouldn't lower the wind chills too drastically Sunday afternoon.

Wind speed and direction
Wiind speed in knots and the direction the wind is blowing from. Image:National Weather Service

It is risky to peer too far into the future of the weather world this time of year, but the Global Forecast System Model paints a chilly morning a week from today.

GFS temperature forecast 6 a.m. CST
Surface temperature, wind and pressure forecast from GFS at 6.m. CST Friday, January 17th. Image:NOAA/College of Dupage.