February Thaw and Ice Dam weather kick in, is Spring in sight?

Death, Taxes and Spring

They say those first two are the two sure things in life. But from a seasonal standpoint one thing is sure, spring follows winter. As we found out last year it's just a question of how soon it arrives in Minnesota.

Our latest snow dump gives way to a long awaited and well earned February thaw this week.

Out: Sub-zero nights.

In: Temps above 32 degrees and melting snow and slush piles.

Minnesota's 10,000 lakes will grow by leaps and bounds this week, as snow melt creates some Olympic-sized puddles that could be mistaken for small lakes in the rest of the world. Car wash optional. Blue juice mandatory.

Counting up inches

Our latest snow system delivered as promised. A good 3 to 6 inches fell in much of Minnesota including the metro. Here's the map from the Twin Cities National Weather Service.

Here are the running totals from the Presidents Day storm. Some totals will still be updated as final amounts roll into NWS.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

324 PM CST MON FEB 17 2014

...LATEST AMOUNTS FROM THE PRESIDENTS DAY SNOWSTORM...THE TOTALS BELOW ARE NOT NECESSARILY THE FINAL AMOUNT FOR EACHLOCATION.

SNOW REPORTS LISTED BY AMOUNT

INCHES LOCATION ST COUNTY TIME

------ ----------------------- -- -------------- -------

6.30 1 WSW VICTORIA MN CARVER 1205 PM

6.30 CHANHASSEN MN CARVER 1200 PM

MEASURED AT THE NWS FORECAST OFFICE.

5.90 WACONIA MN CARVER 1125 AM

5.70 1 ESE CHASKA MN CARVER 0258 PM

5.20 MAPLE GROVE MN HENNEPIN 0800 AM

5.10 ST CLOUD MN STEARNS 1115 AM

5.00 1 S SHAKOPEE MN SCOTT 1059 AM

5.00 ALBERT LEA MN FREEBORN 1048 AM

REPORTED VIA TWITTER.

5.00 SACRED HEART MN RENVILLE 0726 AM

4.80 SAUK RAPIDS MN BENTON 0142 PM

4.60 MSP INTL AIRPORT MN HENNEPIN 1200 PM

4.50 EDEN PRAIRIE MN HENNEPIN 1105 AM

4.50 4 SSE LAKE MARIA STATE MN WRIGHT 1059 AM

4.50 WATERTOWN MN CARVER 1056 AM

4.50 WASECA MN WASECA 0800 AM

4.50 REDWOOD FALLS MN REDWOOD 0630 AM

4.30 LAKEVILLE MN DAKOTA 1155 AM

UPDATED SNOWFALL TOTAL.

4.20 1 NE FAIRMONT MN MARTIN 0838 AM

4.20 WILLMAR MN KANDIYOHI 0600 AM

4.00 ST CLOUD AIRPORT MN SHERBURNE 1200 PM

4.00 FARMINGTON MN DAKOTA 1000 AM

STILL SNOWING AT CWSU.

Here are the Northland snowfall totals from the Duluth NWS.

• 46.8 inches season snowfall total at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport after Monday's snowfall

• +15.8 inches vs. last winter at this point (31 inches)

• +8.7 inches vs. average so far this winter

Forecast: ice dams

It's happening as you read this. That snow that's sitting on your roof is starting to melt. If you haven't removed it by now, you may have ice dam issues as temps thaw this week.

Yes, that's that sound is me scraping the snow off the lowest 7 feet of my roof with the roof rake this evening. I don't want to end up like my neighbor this year, and have to pay this guy to crawl onto my roof and steam/blast/chip away the rapidly developing ice dams.

This week's combination of above freezing daytime temps, and sub-freezing temps at night is the perfect recipe for ice dams.

If you stay on top of it now, hopefully you won't awake to the sound of dripping water in your living room this week. Your insurance agent thanks you in advance.

Onward into the thaw

This is a week many Minnesotans have been waiting for. Milder Pacific air is streaming into the Upper Midwest. Temps are in the 50s Monday afternoon in the non-snow covered plains of South Dakota and Nebraska.

Snow cover will limit the warm up in Minnesota, but 40 degrees is a good possibility Tuesday in the metro with temps well into the 40s in southwest Minnesota where there is less snow on the ground and upstream. We'll have to navigate a few midday clouds to get to 40 in the metro.

The bigger picture shows the dramatic warm up in the Midwest. Temps in the mid-60s only a day's drive away? Any vacancies in Topeka, Kan.?

This time of year with the higher sun angle it's all about snow cover when it comes to high temperatures.

Here's how the high reflectivity of snow -- called albedo -- affects incoming sunlight. As much as 80 percent to 90 percent  of incoming sunlight is reflected away by fresh snow cover before it can heat the lower atmosphere.

Spring on the horizon?

It's still too early to say for sure, but there are signs that this may be a much milder lead up to spring than last year. After this week's thaw, we chill down again this weekend and into next week.

After that, the weather pattern shows signs of a milder turn. Above freezing temps into the 30s may become a common weather theme. Here's NOAA's latest Global Forecast System 16-day output.

That may allow us to start chipping away at our snow cover as we move into March. I have no doubt we'll get more snow and maybe some big March snow dumps. But the temperature trend is starting to show a warmer bias as we had into March.

At least in theory.

Blues for a cause

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If you are looking or some fun Wednesday night, please join us at Bayside Grille in Excelsior for an evening with my good friends in the WCCO Blues Band. I have been playing with Don Shelby and the blues crew at 'CCO since my days there as a young weather lad back in the 80s. Does anyone remember the 80s?

The gig sponsored by Deephaven Life Magazine, and it's a benefit for a great cancer support organization, Gilda's Club of the Twin Cities.

Hope you can make it!