Wintry mix spreads across Minnesota

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Republicans are seizing on the Affordable Care Act and the troubled roll out of Minnesota’s health insurance exchange to fire up voters this election season.

They’ll be highlighting the issues in races up and down the ballot this year, including the contest between incumbent Democratic Sen. Al Franken and his yet-to-be-determined GOP opponent.

Here’s the headline from a recent press release distributed by the Republican Party of Minnesota:

“Franken's Support of ObamaCare Will Reduce Employment in MN: [An] Equivalent of 50,855 Jobs Could Be Lost”

“It is difficult to reconcile Franken's words in light of the news from the Congressional Budget Office that makes clear that fewer people will be employed and fewer hours worked because of the unpopular law,” the press release reads.

It’s true that fewer people will be working because of the ACA. But it’s not because they have lost their jobs. It’s because they are choosing not to work as much or at all.

Franken voted in favor of the health care law in 2010, and continues to support it despite a bumpy roll out.

The GOP is pointing to a recent Congressional Budget Office analysis of the health care law and its impact on employment.

 that predicted employment would decline by roughly 800,000 jobs because of the new law.

The more recent report predicts the number full-time-equivalent employment will decline by 2.5 million by 2024. Americans for Tax Reform, a group led by Grover Norquist that advocates for lower taxes and asks members of Congress to take the Taxpayer Protection Pledge, broke the figure down by state and predicted employment would drop in Minnesota by 50,855 jobs.

There's evidence that some employers are scaling back hours -- 

 -- to ensure they don't have to offer health insurance to hourly employees.

But the CBO emphasizes that the decline stems from the fact that those people will chose to work fewer hours rather than from employers hiring fewer people.

Here’s how the CBO explains the phenomenon:

“Subsidies that help lower income people purchase an expensive product like health insurance must be relatively large to encourage a significant proportion of eligible people to enroll,” the CBO explains in Appendix C of its report. “If those subsidies are phased out with rising income in order to limit their total costs, the phaseout is effectively raises people’s marginal taxes… thus discouraging work.”

In plain English, that means that some people, such as those who are nearing retirement who have been working only to get health insurance, may drop their jobs if they can get a better deal through an insurance exchange, which provides federal subsidies to those with low enough incomes to qualify.

The CBO notes that their predictions come with a lot of uncertainty because it’s not clear yet how many people will try to get coverage through new health insurance options provided by Obamacare.

Just as they were in their first report, the CBO’s numbers have attracted a lot of attention – and a lot of spin.

To head off misinterpretation of their report, the CBO posted an FAQ on their latest findings:

Q: “Will 2.5 Million People Lose Their Jobs in 2024 Because of the ACA?”

A: “No, we would not describe our estimates in that way… The reason for the reduction in the supply of labor is that the provisions of the ACA reduce the incentive to work for certain subsets of the population.”

In the past, PoliGraph has given claims that the health care law will mean job losses a Misleading rating, and we are sticking with it for this claim because it lacks important context.

There’s truth to the GOP’s claim: the CBO predicts employment will decline under the new law, and by a larger amount than the office initially estimated.

But the GOP leaves out the important point that 2.5 million people nationally – and 50,855 Minnesotans – will not lose their jobs as a result of the law. Rather, most will leave the workforce by their own volition.

The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2014 to 2024

How Many Jobs Might Obamacare Cost Your State?

 Labor Market Effects of the Affordable Care Act: Updated Estimates

Frequently Asked Questions About CBO’s Estimates of the Labor Market Effects of the Affordable Care Act

Paul Ryan Fact-Checks Republicans On Obamacare Job 'Costs

Email exchange, Keith Downey, Republican Party of Minnesota

Email exchange, Alexandra Fetissoff, Al Franken for Senate

Politics and Government News

Capitol View®

Catharine Richert

Author

Republicans are seizing on the Affordable Care Act and the troubled roll out of Minnesota’s health insurance exchange to fire up voters this election season. They’ll be highlighting the issues in races up and down the ballot this year, including the contest between incumbent Democratic Sen. Al Franken and his yet-to-be-determined GOP opponent. Here’s the 

Republicans are seizing on the Affordable Care Act and the troubled roll out of Minnesota’s health insurance exchange to fire up voters this election season. They’ll be highlighting the issues in races up and down the ballot this year, including the contest between incumbent Democratic Sen. Al Franken and his yet-to-be-determined GOP opponent. Here’s the Read more →


PoliGraph: GOP claim on jobs has some truth but lacks context

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