June-tastic Tuesday, tornado-free Wisconsin
June is a fickle month in Minnesota. Just when you think summer may have finally arrived, we are treated to a leaking October sky.
That's pretty typical for early June at this latitude.
For some reason on gray early June days like Monday I am reminded of the the big Gorbachev visit to Minnesota on June 3, 1990. As if on cue, a chilly Siberian sky rolled in that day. I was working at WCCO-TV then, and we rolled out team coverage of trench coat clad Minnesotans lining up to see the Russian dignitaries slog through the gray chilly Minnesota streets. Was Shelby really that young once?
Here's a time trip for you, complete with grainy beta-cam clips, 1980s hair mullets and all.
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One thing that hasn't changed in Minnesota in early June? A few chilly gray days.
I always tell people who ask to steer clear of the first weekend in June for outdoor events, and that the third and fourth weekends in June are often much more summer-like. The first half of that equation worked pretty well this year with Saturday's chilly rain.
We'll see how the closing weekends in June pan out this year.
June-tastic Tuesday
Who wants some sunshine?
We shake off our case of the grays with two stunningly beautiful days Tuesday and Wednesday. After some morning fog, Tuesday should evolve into a nice day. A few passing clouds may decorate and otherwise sunny sky Tuesday.
A few clouds roll in again ahead of the next weather system by late Wednesday. Temperatures in the 70s and dew points in the 50s will be near ideal for human comfort. You can't write it up any better than this.
These are the days we long for in January in Minnesota.
Here's a two hour breakdown of the next two days, courtesy of Weatherspark.
Next rain shot: Wednesday night and Thursday
Alas it is still June in Minnesota. And June is our wettest month of the year on average.
The next low pressure wave and cool front rolls in Wednesday and Thursday with more showers and a few thunderstorms marching in from the west.
Northern Minnesota appears to be in line for the heaviest rainfall with the next system. Take a look at the three-day rainfall map from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
Weekend Preview?
Too early to start thinking about the weekend?
Never. Especially if you have that big graduation party.
If you picked Friday evening for the big bash you'll be happy about that. The next low pressure system rides in this weekend. It looks like we'll be dodging scattered hit-or-miss rain and storms once again next weekend.
Sorry about that, I'm just your humble weather messenger.
My unscientific estimate is that 61 percent of all Minnesota grad parties end up in the garage at some point. The party tent is always a good idea in early June.
Hints of heat next week?
No doubt about it, The cool wet bias I suggested last week looks to hold into early next week. There are signs that a much warmer air mass may try and bubble north late next week. When that happens this time of year, you can probably include more heavy thunderstorms at some point.
Here's the 16-day output from NOAA's Global Forecast System; it suggests temps near 90 and dew points in the steamy 70s by next Thursday afternoon.
Another 3 inches-plus rain in the next 16 days? That wouldn't surprise me. Keep those lawn mower blades sharp and the mosquito spray handy.
Wisconsin tornado drought
Here's a good by product of a chilly Great Lakes spring. Wisconsin is tornado free so far this year.
We've already logged five tornadoes in Minnesota, but this is now the ninth latest start to tornado season in Wisconsin.
Our Son of Polar Vortex Spring has kept enough cool air in place near the Great Lakes to suppress tornado numbers so far this year.
With little chance for severe weather by the end of the week, Wisconsin is likely to move into 8th place on the latest tornado hits list by Thursday.
Some interesting stats from WISN's Jeremy Nelson.
So far 2014 has produced zero, yes zero tornadoes across the entire state of Wisconsin. A typical year averages 23 tornadoes in the state. The peak month for tornado activity is June.
The lack of tornadoes so far in 2014 has now landed us in the top 10 for latest start to a tornado season. Here is a look at where we currently rank and other place holders. Tornado records date back to 1950 in Wisconsin.
June 28, 1995
June 25, 1950
June 23, 1952
June 19, 1951
June 17, 1962
June 15, 1983
June 15, 1997
June 11, 1986
June 8, 1963
June 8, 2014* (streak still in progress)
National tornado numbers are off to a slow start this year. So far 541 preliminary tornado reports are in. The 10 year average is about 877 to this date.
As the jet lifts north, the next few weeks it's quite possible we'll see an increase in tornado numbers in the Upper Midwest.
Stay tuned.