First 60 Tuesday, El Nino drought concerns

Boy does that feel good!

One step outside Monday afternoon and you could feel spring is in the air. The sound of gutters draining the last few snow piles. Unfamiliar bird songs. Squirrels darting across snow free lawns.  Neighbors you haven't seen in five months.

• 57 degrees - high at MSP Airport Monday afternoon

• +19 degrees vs. average high of 38 degrees

• October 27th last day warmer than Monday (67 degrees)

Our April preview kicks into high gear Tuesday as the leading edge of the warm core of this week's air mass rides in form the southwest. I'm predicting the first 60 degree temps of the year are likely for the Twin Cities Tuesday afternoon. In fact I think 60 may be conservative for many metro locations.  If the trusty European model is as good as it was last weekend, more 60s lie ahead this week.

Notice the 70 degree temps lapping at southwest Minnesota Tuesday afternoon. The core of the mildest air pushes in from the southwest. Here's a look at how the Sioux falls NWS gauges the warm-up this week.

Tuesday's warm front is tempered by a weak cold front Wednesday that shaves about 5-7 degrees off highs. But Wednesday's mid-50s are still a good 15 degrees above average. An even stronger warm front glides east through the Dakotas Thursday ready to deliver the week's warmest air mass.

The trusty European model has done an excellent job gauging the magnitude of this week's warm up so far. I'm going with the hot hand, the Euro is cranking out 5 days near or above 60 degrees for MSP in the next week. That's the warmest March spell since the record year of 2012.

 Dwindling snow cover

As you would expect snow cover is gone across most of southern Minnesota. It's taking a serious hit in the rest of the region this week.

Frost is starting to leave the ground in snow free areas south of the metro. You can see the top 2-inches is now frost free at the UM's Waseca site.

Drought concerns grow

As I've blabbered for a month now, I'm growingly concerned about our potential for drought in Minnesota this spring. Already 98% of Minnesota is in pre-drought phase.

There is s bias in the Upper Midwest toward dry springs in El Nino years. Precipitation across Minnesota and Wisconsin can run 20% to 50% below average in El Nino springs.

Right now I just don't see any big rain or snow events on the horizon in the next two weeks. Here's NOAA's GFS model generated 16-day precip total for the Twin Cities. This can change...but total precip of .08" is not what the doctor ordered for soaking up rapidly thawing soils.

It could be an early start to an aggressive grass fire season this spring.