Sunday snow potential

Update 9:45 pm Saturday night: The latest model trends continue to ramp up potential snowfall totals Sunday. Several models now crank out a narrow band with heavier 3" to 6"+ snowfall totals in or very close to the metro. But there are also several factors working against accumulations that high. I'm not ready to buy into totals that high for most of the metro just yet. It still looks like the heaviest snow band could fall just south and west of the Twin Cities.

Stay tuned for updates through Sunday, but be aware of the possibility that this storm has the potential to produce significant snow totals very close to or possibly in parts of the metro Sunday.

-Original post 3:10 pm Saturday-

You knew it's always possible we wouldn't get through the rest of March without one more quick shot of slushy accumulation on the lawn. It looks like Sunday may provide that "opportunity."

Sunday's inbound weather system looks a little stronger and slightly colder than it did Friday. The result is likely several hours of snow and some mixed precip for the metro Sunday afternoon and evening. The "dynamics" with this system look strong enough that the strong upward vertical lift may overcome marginal temps above freezing near the ground. The result could be a few hours of moderate to heavy snow at times.

Big wet flakes.

Here's a look at the incoming low pressure system. The Clipper is showing up more impressively on forecast runs today.

The latest system track bring the snowy smudge more directly over the metro than it did Friday. Heaviest snowfall totals still look to favor areas south and west of the immediate metro...but it's too close to call. It looks more likely that a few inches of slushy snow may accumulate on lawns even in the metro and points southwest by Sunday evening.

The big question with this system, will temps be close enough to freezing to keep precip all snow, or will enough above freezing air mix in during the warmer afternoon hours to keep precip a rainy, sleety mix? Here's an hour by hour breakdown of temps and precip Sunday. If temps hold a few degrees above freezing Sunday afternoon, some of the snow may mix with sleet and rain. Some will also melt on contact with now warmer ground.

I wouldn't be shocked to see some 2" to 4"+ totals on the ground near or in parts of the metro by Sunday evening. The critical factor with this system will be if dynamical cooling can overcome temps just above freezing and change precip to all snow for enough hours. If it does, there could be some higher totals.

Twin Cities NWS has issued winter weather advisories including the metro.

Bottom line: Expect some snow Sunday that may be more persistent and heavier at times. Slushy accumulations and possibly some minor travel issues are looking more likely.