April showers this week, 70s return next week?
April is a promise that May is bound to keep. - Hal Borland
April in Minnesota may be the most fickle of all weather months. Bone chilling single digits? Sweaty days in the mid 90s? At 45 degrees north latitude it's all happened in April.
This week reminds us that the phrase "April showers" has meaning. Today it means gray skies and a raw cutting breeze.
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We need anywhere from 2 to 5 inches of rainfall to end the drought in Minnesota this spring. Here's a look at rainfall deficits across Minnesota for the past six months from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
Today's light showers won't dent the drought.
A stronger wrapped up low pressure system rides in Wednesday night and Thursday. This one has all the earmarks of a spring soaker. A gray but quiet Wednesday yields to waves of showers and a few thunderstorms bearing more significant rainfall by Thursday.
This may be the soaker we've been looking for to get things greening up across southern Minnesota. Waves of rainfall look promising from the metro south by Thursday.
Super soaker?
The latest trends suggest rainfall of a half-inch to 1 inch-plus is possible for southern Minnesota Thursday, maybe even the metro. This potent system has the capacity to produce some multi-inch rainfall totals in Wisconsin and Illinois.
Severe outbreak
I'm concerned this system is coming together to produce a potential severe weather outbreak in the central plains and Ohio Valley Wednesday and Thursday.
Look for a potentially significant severe weather outbreak with tornadoes. It won't be long before those "risk areas" move north into Minnesota.
Sun returns late week
The sun returns as Thursday's system pulls out Friday and Saturday. Temps will warm, and it may actually feel like spring is in the air once again. More (welcome?) April showers return by Sunday, and may linger into opening day at Target Field Monday.
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and NOAA's Global Forecast System models are at odds next week about a potential warm up. The GFS is cranking to more 70s, with a shot at another 80 degree day and more rain and thunder next week.
The European model keeps us much cooler (50s) next week.
Stay tuned.