Models: Tropical Storm Erika may approach Florida
Say hello to the Atlantic hurricane season's fifth-named storm.
Tropical Storm Erika is gaining steam and showing signs of becoming better organized in the open Atlantic.
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015
500 AM AST TUE AUG 25 2015
...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.6N 49.4W
ABOUT 840 MI...1355 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
Create a More Connected Minnesota
MPR News is your trusted resource for the news you need. With your support, MPR News brings accessible, courageous journalism and authentic conversation to everyone - free of paywalls and barriers. Your gift makes a difference.
Erika is moving westward over warm water and through little wind shear, a favorable environment for intensification. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Hurricane Center is forecasting Hurricane Erika with 80 mph winds to move into the Bahamas by this weekend.
Eventual threat to U.S.?
It's too early to say with certainty if Erika will become a threat to the U.S. coast. But many of the medium-range forecast spaghetti models are laying out some eye opening tracks for the southeast U.S., including the Florida coast.
NOAA's Global Forecast System model has a weaker storm crossing Florida next Tuesday. The overnight model from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts is painting a scary scenario with a much stronger hurricane just off the Florida coast.
One of my go-to sites for all things hurricanes (spaghettimodels.com) has some perspective.
Warm water
Erika has plenty of hurricane rocket fuel to work with; warm water all the way to the U.S. coastline.
Favorably low wind shear ahead?
The biggest question with Erika may be wind shear. Erika may encounter some shear as it approaches Puerto Rico, but the rest of the potential path toward the U.S. coast looks favorable for intensification.
Interaction with any land masses along the way could also affect Erika's strength. Again, it's too early to tell for sure if Erika will eventually threaten the U.S. But the latest set of model runs suggest a growing chance that could happen next week.
Stay tuned on this one. Erika may become the next long drawn out reality TV weather show in the next week.