Still mild now, Friday showers

Jack Frost is taking a long October vacation from southern Minnesota this year.

Temperatures have only managed to dip below the freezing mark once this October, and that was at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport briefly last Friday morning.

This week, we're pushing the October temperature average higher again. Cold fronts are in short supply around these parts. A slightly cooler breeze today turns southerly once again tomorrow before our Friday rain system sends showers this way.

Friday's system looks promising to be the first significant soaker in weeks. The track of the low through central Minnesota puts the heaviest rain zone in northern Minnesota. That's where the best chance of half-inch to 1 inch-plus rainfall totals fall.

The more detailed forecast timing brings a mostly rainy day Friday, with showers possibly lingering into Saturday morning. Today, Thursday and Sunday look like the nicest days.

Here's another view on the short term forecast and rainfall potential from the Twin Cities National Weather Service.

Dryness creeping up

We can use the rain. Most of the Upper Midwest is running rainfall deficits this fall. The Twin Cities is down 1.4 inches from its average in October. Much of Iowa has recorded little if any rainfall this month.

Most of the Midwest has finally recorded the first freeze of the year.

The longer range outlooks still seem to favor a mild push starting around Halloween and spilling into early November.

Stay tuned.