Good Christmas Eve travel, snow likely Christmas night

'Tis the season.

Minnesotans of all shapes and sizes hit the road today and Christmas Day to visit loved ones. Minnesota's weather news is generally good this Christmas Eve. A little lingering morning snow up north, a few stray flurries in the south. But thankfully no major travel problems today, tonight or Christmas Day around Minnesota.

Here's a wider look at travel conditions today across the Upper Midwest. You may run into a few light snow showers in northeast Minnesota and some light snow accumulations in Iowa.

Christmas morning starts sunny and quiet. But you may want to wrap up those Christmas Day travel plans before the dinner hour. (A good excuse to cut out early on any potential family drama?) The next chance for snow arrives in southwest Minnesota tomorrow afternoon, and into the metro Christmas night. Snow spreads across a good chunk of Minnesota by midnight tomorrow night.

Overrunning: A different kind of snow system

Confidence is (moderately) higher with the inbound Friday night system than with Wednesday's rain to slop fest. For one thing, we will have enough cold air in place so the rain snow line is not an issue for most of Minnesota. It should hover near the Iowa border, where icing may be an issue Friday night.

The Christmas night/Saturday snow system is what we call "overrunning" in the weather biz. A milder moisture rich air mass glides up and over the cold dome in place over Minnesota. These system are not as dependent on precise storm track and rain-snow lines. They tend to produce more widespread, predictable snow zones. At least in theory.

Here's a look at the southerly flow overrunning the warm front to the south. It's likely to produce a solid swath of snow from Denver through Minnesota to the Great Lakes by Saturday morning.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's North American Mesoscale Forecast System model paints snow developing in the metro by between about 6 p.m. and 9 p.m. Christmas evening. Heavier snows should arrive after midnight.

Flood threat south

Heavy rainfall along the frontal zone will likely cause flooding. More than 10 inches of rain may fall in the Southern Plains. A a tropical storm's worth of rainfall on Christmas weekend.

The concerned view from the Tulsa National Weather Service office.

Where it's white

The Twin Cities is in an unlucky snow-free doughnut hole this Christmas Eve.

Southern tornado outbreak

Wednesday evenings deadly tornado outbreak produced at least 29 preliminary tornado reports into NOAA's Storm Prediction Center.

The deadly twisters included one very long track tornado in northern Mississippi. The Memphis, Tenn., National Weather Service office will conduct damage surveys today. By my early measurements, this violent tornado may have been on the ground for more than 130 miles.

The twister tore through Delta Blues country around Clarksdale, Miss., and caused multiple fatalities in Mount Holly before crossing into Tennessee.

Graphic evidence of damage here. No, highway bridges and overpasses are not generally safe during tornadoes.

Yuletide heat wave out east

Records have already been broken along the east coast. Sixty-three degrees at 5 a.m. on Christmas Eve in Central Park?

Highs easily reach the 70s today along the East Coast. That's 30 degrees above average, folks.

The air mass over the east coast originated in the tropics.

It's literally setting record for the amount of moisture content in the air.

Solar boom, Part II

It's been a good year for solar power. And it ends with a Christmas miracle.

Slate has details.

And then a series of miracles happened. On Dec. 12, the Paris climate talks concludedwith an unexpectedly strong agreement among countries to attempt to limit emissions. The U.S. publicly recommitted to green policies, and a large number ofgiant, influential global companies signed on to an initiative to get 100 percent of their energy from renewable sources. Investors began to reconsider their pessimism.

Next, Washington delivered—defying the conventional wisdom. Newly installed House Speaker Paul Ryan realized that he’d have to negotiate with congressional Democrats if he wanted to get a budget and tax deal before the end of the year. And as they came to the table, another miracle happened: The Democrats held fast. On Dec. 14, Democrats indicated they would be willing to support the Republican-backed effort to lift the ban on oil exports — but only if the Republicans would consent to measures including a multiyear extension of renewable energy credits. It worked. Last Friday, Congress voted to extend the 30 percent solar investment tax credit through 2019, and then to reduce it to 10 percent through 2022.

That move instantly made the U.S. solar industry viable for another six years. Investors were elated. SolarCity’s stock popped as details of the budget agreement began to emerge and then soared on its announcement. By Friday, the stock was above $56, up about 117 percent from its November low. SunEdison’s stock closed on Friday at $6.51, up 127 percent in a month. The Guggenheim Solar ETF is up about 30 percent from Nov. 19 through last Friday.

God bless us, everyone.