Prompts winter weather advisories as cold air moves in Friday night

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It's amazing how quickly our moods change with the weather. A bright sunny day and we forget about the temperature. Our spirits soar, the spring in our step returns, all is well with the world.

But too much sunshine can be a bad thing in weather.

Last weekend's smoke event reminds me that drought can actually be a kind of low-grade stress. We sense the fire danger creeping higher, as the landscape dries out. By the time we get to 'extreme fire danger' as we did in northern Minnesota and Ontario early this week, the weather stress level for me is palpable.

Perhaps it's too many years forecasting fire weather and watching Arizona's beautiful Ponderosa Pine forests go up in flames perhaps for this meteorologist. You never forget when you're on the air live reporting as a firestorm sweeps through the town of Summerhaven burning a mountian town and 340 sturctures to the ground in the 

Aspen Fire in the mountains above Tucson.

That's why being greeted as rain is a compliment in the desert. I love me some sunny days too, but I was really happy for the drier parts of Minnesota to see the rain this week.  90,000 evacuees in Fort McMurray wondering when, or if they'll see home again? Fires nipping at northern Minnesota's door? Smoke plumes invading the metro in the wee hours of the morning?

The rain-washed Huttner Weather Lab lilies have never looked so good.

Cathy Wurzer and I talked a lot this week about the substantial rainfall differences between southwest and northern Minnesota in the past month. Soggy 6" to 8" rainfall totals have piled up around Sioux Falls, Luverne and Worthington along the I-90 corridor in the past month. Standing water in soggy fields. Rivers and creeks at bank-full. Meanwhile much of northern Minnesota has recorded well under 2" in the past 30 days.

This week's rainfall continued the trend of wet south and drier north. Another 1" to 2" fell in in southern Minnesota. A welcome inch fell in the metro. Northern Minnesota got some rain, but totals were generally under .50" in most towns.

Here's a look at rainfall totals over the past 7 days from NOAA's Advanced Hydrological Prediction Service.

More sunshine returns Thursday as the low kicks east. You'll feel the cold front by Friday as northwest winds kick in.

Bring the cold weather gear. Lows bottom out in the 30s this weekend, and highs struggle into thew 40s up north Saturday.

Northwest winds between 10-20+ will create a pretty good walleye chop. Weather the life jacket. The water is still hypothermic out there.

The HopWRF wave model output cranks up some hefty 3'-4' waves on the bigger lakes like Mille Lacs Friday and Saturday. Make sure you know what you're doing out there.

Yes, this weekend is a big deal for Minnesotans and tourism.

Here's the definitive summary of fishing opener weather historically 

from the Minnesota Climate Working Group.

Thursday looks pretty nice as temps climb into the 60s with some sun. NOAA's GFS shows the weekend chill, and picks up on the warming trend next week as temps climb back into the upper 60s. N/X stand for min temp and max temp each day.

Hang in there. The upper air pattern looks favorable for a return to early summer warmth and humidity starting late next week. A ridge of  balmy high pressure builds over the central USA.

Brighter Thursday, chilly fishing opener but 80 in sight

Go Deeper.

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