Overnight downpours, flash flood watch continues

Wet enough for ya?

That question depends on precisely where you live in relation to where the heaviest rain bands set up into Thursday morning. Our atmosphere remains juiced with plenty of moisture to fuel tropical downpours into Thursday morning. A strong warm frontal boundary is still parked over southern Minnesota. That's the focus for thunderstorm development, a slight severe risk and heavy rainfall potential as we move through the overnight hours.


Slow moving front

It seems like I've been talking about this stalled front for days now. Oh wait, I have. The front lingers across southern Minnesota into Thursday, then drifts mercifully south to Iowa, taking the heaviest rain cells with it. Scattered (lighter) rain showers may remain in the storm's wake. Saturday looks summery and probably lake-worthy, the next front brings more rain Saturday night.

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How much more rain?

Coverage for heavy convective rainfall is always scattered in nature. One town gets half an inch, the next gets 3 inches. NOAA's NAM 4 km model captures the scattershot nature of the rains into Thursday. We'll still likely be dealing with some scattered pockets of multi-inch rainfall by Thursday morning.

NOAA via College of Dupage

Here are the nuts and bolts of the rain threat into Thursday from the Twin Cities NWS.


Bottom line: Expect occasional rain which will be heavy at times into Thursday morning. Flash flooding of streams, low lying areas and urban flooding is likely in areas that get the heaviest rainfall. The Thursday morning commute will likely be impacted in the Twin Cities metro area. Stay 'situationally aware' through the overnight hours into at least Thursday morning.