Warm pattern returns, tracking Christmas rain
"The trend is your friend." - Retired MPR meteorologist Craig Edwards
My former partner in weather crime words of weather wisdom ring true once again as we move through Christmas week into late December.
Minnesota's string of 13 colder than average days ends today. Our weather pattern returns to the base state of the past 15 months, warmer than average. It now looks like Minnesota may see above average temperatures each day through the end of 2016.
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The maps across North America shows multiple puffs of warmer than average air wafting across Minnesota and the Upper Midwest in the next two weeks.
Thawing out
In the short term that means several days in the 30s for Minnesota, peaking with an increasingly likely warm surge Christmas Day.
Odds are growing that warm advection will overpower snow cover and other meteorological factors to drive temps into the 40s Christmas night in the Twin Cities and southern Minnesota.
A shot at 40 today?
Most crank out mid 30s today for the Twin Cities. That looks conservative. With plenty of sun today, I won't be surprised if a few bank thermometers touch 40 degrees this afternoon in the metro. Average high in the Twin Cities today? 26 degrees.
Wednesday Clipper up north
Wednesday's Clipper is taking the northern route. Light snow falls across northern Minnesota tomorrow, but the system is tracking too far north to produce any significant weather in the Twin Cities and southern Minnesota.
Northern Minnesota picks up see 1" to 3" snowfall Wednesday. A few flakes may fly as far south as the Twin Cities, with little or no accumulation.
Christmas: More wet than white?
I'm still tracking a significant storm system heading for the Upper Midwest on Christmas Day. The overnight and early morning model trends still favor the western track. That would pull warm air into the system for eastern Minnesota. If the western track verifies, a wintry mix of snow and ice is likely to change to all rain Christmas Day.
Here's NOAA's latest GFS run.
The yellow indicates heavy rain cells. Christmas thunder in Minnesota?
The Euro still favors a snow to rain transition for the Twin Cities Christmas Day, with temps reaching 48 degrees by Christmas night. Travel conditions look good on Christmas Eve and Monday.
Warm into New Year's?
The upper air pattern suggests milder than average weather for the eastern half of the USA into early 2017.
Stay tuned.