Heavy rains likely Friday, but where?
Here we go again.
It's a classic forecast battle between the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's retooled Global Forecast System model and the usually trusty European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model.
The ongoing battle between the Euro and GFS brings a hockey analogy to mind. Betting against the Euro lately is like betting against the Chicago Blackhawks. We are pulling for the retooled and improved Wild to win. But until they prove it in the playoffs, the Blackhawks remain the favorites.
And "King Euro" still has the home ice advantage.
Create a More Connected Minnesota
MPR News is your trusted resource for the news you need. With your support, MPR News brings accessible, courageous journalism and authentic conversation to everyone - free of paywalls and barriers. Your gift makes a difference.
Euro vs. GFS
Both forecast models bring scattered rain into southern Minnesota and the Twin Cities Thursday. But by Friday there are significant differences is the precise placement of the heavier rain band.
By midday Friday NOAA's GFS sets up the heaviest rain band south of the metro along Interstate 90 and over Rochester, Minn., and La Crosse, Wis.
NOAA's newly upgraded (this week) NAM 3 km resolution model seems trend toward the European solution, keeping a significant rain band over the Twin Cities Friday.
The European model sets up the heaviest rain zone right over the Twin Cities metro. The Euro is cranking out steady, even heavy bursts of rainfall for the Twin Cities Friday.
The Euro cranks out 27.6 mm of rainfall for the Twin Cities through Friday, which translates to more than 1 inch.
NOAA's GFS pushes that heavy rain band south of the Twin Cities, with a big swath of 1 to 2 inches-plus clipping southeast Minnesota as it drapes across Iowa and southern Wisconsin.
The trends to watch in today's model runs? Will the GFS come more in line with the Euro keeping heavier rains across the Twin Cities Friday?
Gradual warming trend
The longer range forecast picture favors a gradual warming trend. Temps likely hover in the low 50s into next week. There are some signs that a more significant warming trend arrives the first week of April. The long range upper air charts suggest the jet stream may lift well north into Canada, and bring a much warmer flow across the northern United States by April 1-5.
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center favors warmer than average temps as we turn the corner into April.
It may be only a matter of time until a sudden intrusion of very warm air causes temperatures to spike across Minnesota. The upstream air mass to the southwest has produced record highs this week.
The next week trends wetter. Could the season's first 70 degree day be in sight in the first week of April?
Stay tuned.