Milder Pacific breeze: Snow chance, a supersized January thaw?
Minnesota's weather pattern is about to change. Big time.
Our upper winds blow more Seattle latte than Yukon Cornelius by Sunday. It looks more likely thermometers will blow past the 30 degree mark in southern Minnesota next week.
The weather maps whisper snowy rumors. Even bigger changes likely arrive the following week. A few models insist on a supersized January thaw around Jan. 16-20. Good news for those who want a break from the persistent cold. Potentially terrible news for some outdoor events that week. I know. I'm just the messenger whose job requires I call it as I see it.
Milder by Sunday
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Here's the map sequence through this weekend. Southerly breezes begin to blow Saturday. Light snow clips northeastern Minnesota Saturday night. By Sunday milder Pacific air invades the now solidly frozen tundra. An even milder pulse of air wafts in on red-dashed lines by Wednesday.
Here's the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Global Forecast System's version of events.
Micro-thaw next week?
To my eye, it looks more likely that temperatures will push past 30 degrees and challenge the thawing point next week. Either way it's going to feel noticeably milder. Stock up on the blue juice too.
Snowy rumors
It's still too early to get significantly jacked about snow chances next week. But you're going to hear some snowy talk.
The American and Canadian models bring some snow into southern Minnesota and the Twin Cities next Wednesday night into Thursday. The latest European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model is leaning mostly rain. We'll see how the models sort out storm track and temperature profile in the next few days.
For now here's NOAA's GFS into next Thursday. Confidence factor = low. Buyer beware.
January mega-thaw?
NOAA's medium-range GFS continues to suggest, even scream a major January thaw pattern sometime around Jan. 16-20.
As I've said before in this space, temperature trends are more reliable in week two than specific daily temperature numbers or precipitation. There's a reason for that. Numerical forecast models perform better with big upper wave patterns that drive air masses, than they do with smaller scale waves that drive precipitation.
The upper-air charts for the week of Jan. 15-20 continue to crank out a major Pacific flow into the Upper Midwest.
NOAA's GFS 16-day temperature output continues to crank out several days (and even a few nights) well above the thawing point. Again this may be overdone, but the probability of a major January thaw between Jan. 16-20 is growing fast. Confidence factor = medium.
Stay tuned.