Strikingly beautiful Tuesday; severe storms race southeast overnight
Call it the stunningly beautiful calm before the storms.
My unscientific poll of Minnesotans says Tuesday approaches summer weather perfection for 89.4 percent of us. If you can't appreciate it, the weather might not be the problem.
We enjoy plenty of sunshine Tuesday and comfortable dew points. Free AC is a persistent weather feature once again near still frigid Lake Superior.
Note the dramatic contrast in temperatures Tuesday from 60s near the big lake, to 90s in southwest Minnesota.
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Cooler by the Lake
Why do the lilacs still bloom around the Fourth of July in Duluth some years? Lake Superior is earth's biggest freshwater AC unit. Lake temperatures are still in the frigid 30s along the North Shore.
Severe risk tonight up north
If you live in Fargo, N.D., I'd be ready to batten down the hatches around midnight tonight.
A cluster of storms is almost certain develop and move through Fargo in the hours surrounding midnight. That storm complex may form a bow echo, packing hail and damaging winds as it races southeast across Minnesota through the Detroit Lakes and Brainerd Lakes areas overnight. It may be fading, or still severe by the time it reaches the Twin Cities toward morning rush hour Wednesday.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's North American Mesoscale Forecast System 3 km resolution mode does an amazing job of depicting the small scale features. Now we just need to see how precise this turns out to be.
The loop below runs from midnight to 9 a.m. Wednesday.
Enhanced risk
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center ramps up the risk zone in the Red River Valley tonight.
Bottom Line: Severe storms are likely in the Red River Valley late Tuesday night.
They will move southeast toward the Twin Cities by Wednesday morning rush hour. The storms will run into slightly more stable air as they approach the Twin Cities. They may, or may not fade to below severe limits by the time they reach the Twin Cities early Wednesday morning. Storms may redevelop across southern Minnesota along the Interstate 90 corridor Wednesday afternoon.
Pleasantly warm
Temperatures run in the low 80s the next few days. The models are still in flux about how warm we will get next week.
Keep the weather radio on tonight.