Sunrise surprise? Fargo/I-94 storms rumble into MSP around 5 to 6 a.m.
It looks like a stormy Wednesday morning rush hour in the Twin Cities.
A cluster of storms is likely to blow through Fargo-Moorhead around midnight. The storms will likely pack wind and hail as they race southeast along either side of Interstate 94 overnight. The thunder threat rolls across northwestern and central Minnesota through Detroit Lakes, Fergus Falls, Alexandria, Brainerd and St. Cloud in route to the Twin Cities.
Most of the short-range high-resolution models push the storms into the Twin Cities area between about 6 a.m. and 8 a.m. Wednesday.
Here's the projected timing for northwest Minnesota according to the Red River Valley NWS office.
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Severe risk favors west-central Minnesota
The most unstable air overnight resides in western Minnesota. I expect numerous severe thunderstorms warnings overnight from the Red River Valley eastward into the Brainerd Lakes area and Alexandria.
The atmosphere will be a little more stable across eastern Minnesota. That may cause the storms to lose some steam as they approach the Twin Cities early Wednesday morning, but severe weather is still possible in the Twin Cities if they maintain intensity long enough.
Needed rainfall
We could use the rain. This looks like a typical summer convective rainfall event. That means rainfall may be highly localized and variable. Locations that get under the storms could see between one-quarter inch and .70 inch rainfall. There may be some lucky 1 inch-plus totals under the strongest cells.
50 degree temperature contrast
I saw 46 at The Bay at Grand Marais, Minn., and 97 in Canby in southwestern Minnesota Tuesday afternoon.
This time of year we ride the boundary between steamy summer air to the south, and the still frigid waters of Lake Superior. Welcome to Minnesota.
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Probably 80s
It's been interesting to watch model variations in temperature forecast over the next one to two weeks. The upper-air pattern seems in flux. This time of year that can mean highs in the 70s, or 90s to 100 degrees. The smartest money seems to be on mostly days in the 80s the next one to two weeks.
Expect storms in the Twin Cities between 6 a.m. and 8 a.m. Wednesday.