Blizzard warnings in Northwest Minnesota, winter weather advisories across the state

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Our next weather system sweeps across Minnesota Thursday. The latest model trends favor a more southerly track with the surface low. That could reduce rainfall totals in northern Minnesota, and focus the heaviest rains and severe risk in southern Minnesota counties.

NOAA's GFS model has now become one of the more southerly solutions and portrays more of a showery glancing blow to the Twin Cities and most of central and northern Minnesota vs. the all-day rain scenario it was painting just 24 hours ago.

The European and other models have also reduced rainfall potential Thursday for the Twin Cities and especially northern Minnesota. The heaviest rainfall zone now favors southwest through southern Minnesota. Here's NOAA's latest NAM model run.

If this was a winter storm we'd be losing what hair we have left trying to pinpoint snowfall totals on the edge of the heavy snow band southwest of the Twin Cities. I'm grateful it's July.

A few showers may linger Friday. The weekend looks sunnier. Temperatures in the next 10 days or so are still coming up rosy.

Climate forecasters keep close tabs on ocean temperatures in the tropical Pacific. They can give us clues to seasonal forecast months in advance. The latest trends in the tropical Pacific show warmer waters brewing.

 gives a 70% chance of El Nino conditions forming by next winter.

El Nino phases can suppress Atlantic hurricane activity and tend to favor milder winters in the Upper Midwest.

 blowing across the Atlantic this month. You can see why Saharan dust has been found in soils along the U.S. east coast.

Weather and Climate News

Thursday rain gives way to a nice weekend; signs of a mild winter ahead?

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