Weather on a stick: Rainy by Friday; Lane threatens Hawaii

This is as good as it gets in Minnesota. A pale blue sky and a few fair weather clouds graced Minnesota skies Wednesday.

Great State Fair Opener

The Great Minnesota Get Together kicks off Thursday.

Thursday brings another beautiful weather day. But you'll notice our air mass changing. Dew points climb into the sticky 60s. And clouds thicken in the afternoon. Highs again push the upper 70s and low 80s across Minnesota.

State Fair weather history

Here's a good summary of historical State Fair weather from the Minnesota DNR Climate Working Group.

Temperature

There can be some spells of hot weather during the Minnesota State Fair. The hottest day in the history of the Minnesota State Fair was on September 10, 1931 with 104 degrees. The hottest average temperature for the duration of any State Fair back to 1885 is also 1931 with 92.6 degrees. Note that the Minnesota State Fair in 1931 ran eight days from September 5-12. The 2013 Fair was the third warmest on record with 88.2 degrees and also had the most 90-degree high temperatures on record with six days. 2012 had the sixth warmest average maximum temperature with 87.1 degrees. The coolest Minnesota State Fair was during the six-day run of the Fair from September 5-10 1898 with an average maximum temperature of 64.2 degrees. The coldest maximum temperature for the Fair is 52 degrees on September 7, 1911, and the coldest minimum temperature is 33 degrees on September 13, 1890. The coolest Fair morning in recent years was a chilly 36 degrees on September 1, 1974. The last four State Fairs have seen an absence of hot weather. There wasn’t a 90 degree high temperature during the State Fair from 2014-2017. The last 90+ degree temperature was August 29, 2013. The 2018 Minnesota State Fair runs August 23-September 3.

Precipitation

On average it rains about three to four days during the Fair's 12-day run. The wettest Fair was in 1977 with 9.48 inches, and the driest Fair was 2003 with only .02 inch of rain.

The largest rain event in the State Fair's history was August 30, 1977. At 8:20pm heavy rains hit the State Fairgrounds. The U of M St. Paul Campus climate observatory one mile north of the Fairgrounds reported 4.06 inches of rain. This caused some of the worst street flooding seen at the Fairgrounds. The bulk of the rain fell in a 3 1/2 hour period from 8:15pm to 11:45pm. The grandstand show was cancelled, and people had great difficulty trying to leave the Fair. The Twin Cities International Airport saw 7.28 inches from this event, second all-time only to the July 1987 "Superstorm" total of 10.00 inches. People driving on I-94 leaving the Fair found water "up to their hood ornaments" in low areas under bridges.

Rain by Friday

Weather systems are starting to move more quickly on the maps. That means more frequent changes ahead. Low pressure moving in from the Dakotas with widespread showers and T-Storms Thursday night through Friday. Here's NOAA's GFS model.

Some much-needed rainfall will fall across the Twin Cities. Many locations could see .50" to 1"+ by Friday night.

Heavy rainfall potential next week?

Some models suggest a stalled frontal system could generate some heavy rainfall next week. NOAA's GFS may be overdone, but the notion of multi-inch rainfall totals is possible.

Summer rolls on

Temperatures look warm as September approaches.

Lane threatens Hawaii

Hurricane lane is the strongest hurricane ever to threaten Hawaii. The monster storm reached Category 5 early Wednesday and now approaches as a Category 4 storms with 155 mph winds.

Spiral rain bands are already sweeping the Big Island.

The official storm track sweeps lane close by the islands tot he west.

But uncertainty still exists.

Stay tuned.