Hurricane Florence: Comparisons to Hugo and Harvey may prove accurate

Minnesota's quiet weather this week is a blessing. But the biggest weather story this week, and maybe this summer, is Hurricane Florence. Remember that name. All the latest meteorological tools suggest Florence will deliver a devastating blow to the mid-Atlantic coast late this week.

Rapid intensification 

Florence is getting that look. The storm is showing more symmetry and a well-defined eye structure on satellite loops.

Florence packs 105 mph winds Monday morning. She is likely to reach Category 3 strength today. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Hurricane Center elaborates on the favorable environment Florence is moving into for strengthening.

Florence will be traversing very warm SSTs of around 29C and remain within a very favorable upper-level environment during the next couple of days. These conditions are expected to lead to significant strengthening during the next 12 to 24 hours, and Florence is forecast to be a very powerful major hurricane on its approach to the southeastern United States.

The NHC intensity forecast is slightly above all of the intensity guidance during the first 24 hours, and is then a blend of the FSSE and HCCA models.The global model guidance also increases the size of Florence's wind field during the next few days, and this has been reflected in the NHC wind radii forecast.

Forecast track

A developing high-pressure ridge to the north is likely to keep Florence on a west-northwest track this week. While forecast track changes are still possible, the bulk of models steer Florence toward an eventual landfall zone Thursday from northern South Carolina into southern North Carolina.

Here's the official NHC track cone.

The range of spaghetti model solutions is tightly clustered on the North Carolina coast.

Wider impacts

Florence is forecast to be a huge storm. Impacts will be serious well away from the landfall center. Rainfall totals of 20 to 30 inches are increasingly likely well inland in parts of North Carolina and Virginia.

Florence is expected to stall for as many as four to five days. Locally higher rainfall totals of 30 to 40 inches-plus can't be ignored. The treat for inland flooding similar to Hurricane Harvey is real.

All signs suggest Florence is about to become the next major weather disaster in the U.S.

Statistical peak

Today is the statistical peak of hurricane season in the northern hemisphere.

It's incredible to look at the number of storms in progress now across the globe.