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Minnesotans can usually count on a late-summer surge of warmth during the 12-day Minnesota State Fair run. And some of the early forecast models appear to be ready to drizzle some weather hot sauce on your favorite Fair fare.

It’s still early and medium-range forecast models can swing wildly as we approach September. But early indications suggest the jet stream may meander north of Minnesota well into late August. That would hold late summer warmth in place for most of the 12-day Fair run.

Monday’s 16-day Global Forecast System model run suggests several days in the upper 80s to near 90 degrees during the State Fair. 

The other notable trend is dryness. NOAA’s GFS run prints out just just .07 inch of rainfall during the State Fair run. I’m not buying into that low rainfall total yet. Precipitation trends show far less skill than temperatures trends in the one to two week range. And one good localized thunderstorm can drop an inch or more in a hurry.

It will be no surprise if we see at least one 90-degree day during the State Fair. We recorded six days at or above 90 degrees in 2013. However it’s interesting to note there hasn’t been a 90 degree high temperature during the State Fair since 2013! 

State Fair weather from the Minnesota DNR Climate Working Group

Weather and Climate News

Updraft® - Minnesota Weather News

Paul Huttner

Author

Warm, dry bias for Minnesota State Fair run? Forecast models suggest near 90 degrees during the State Fair. 

Evan Frost | MPR News 2018

Upper air map for 7 pm CDT Thursday August 22 

NOAA

16-day NOAA GFS model temperature output for Minneapolis 

Late summer hot front ahead for Minnesota State Fair?

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