Mostly good Labor Day weekend; Dorian's track highly uncertain
Hurricane Dorian is in beast mode. Weak steering currents present forecast challenges.
The last big holiday weekend of summer is here. Typically, Labor Day brings the best chance of good weather for the big three summer weekends. Our weather pattern looks mostly favorable this weekend. We may dodge a few showers, but most of the weekend hours look dry.
Mostly 70s
Let’s start with temperature trends. Highs in the 70s will be common for the nest week across southern Minnesota. Shave a few degrees off up north as usual and you get upper 60s. Labor Day will be the warmest day of the next week. Your local bank thermometer should flash 80 degrees Monday afternoon.
Spotty showers
Saturday and Labor Day afternoon bring the highest chance of spotty showers or a thunderstorm. Coverage looks scattered at best. I wouldn’t change any outdoor plans, but keep an eye on the sky and the Doppler Saturday afternoon and Labor Day.
NOAA’s North American Mesoscale Forecast System 3 km resolution model paints spotty showers Saturday afternoon and evening.
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Easing into September
The first two weeks of September look fairly pleasant. Highs in the 70s look frequent in southern Minnesota. Mild days and pleasantly cool nights rule the forecast. Right now I don’t see any bone chilling cold fronts in the forecast. At least not yet.
Dorian: Weak steering currents, high track uncertainty
Hurricane Dorian is turning out to be a very interesting, and challenging, storm to forecast. It already made an unexpected right turn to spare most of Puerto Rico Wednesday. Now it’s in beast mode over the open Atlantic about to move through the northern the Bahamas.
Dorian’s structure is impressive with a concentric eyewall and massive central dense overcast. This storm is a beast.
Intensity: Category 4 ahead?
Usually hurricane tracks are more reliable than intensity forecasts. Dorian seems to be the exception.
The intensity forecast for Dorian seems pretty straightforward. Warm, open water and a low wind shear environment favor almost certain intensification over the next 48 hours. Dorian is forecast to reach Category 4 status with 140 mph winds on approach to Florida’s east coast late Monday.
Track forecast: High degree of uncertainty
The upper level steering currents around Dorian become weak by Labor Day. This likely means a slower storm, and raises the potential for more erratic track behavior.
The official National Hurricane Center track forecast still projects a landfall and raking path along Florida’s east coast Tuesday. This scenario would be a devastating blow to Florida’s east coast.
But the latest model trends show a rightward shift. If that occurs, it could be better news for the southeast U.S. Today’s European Model run suggest the center of Dorian would stay just offshore.
That scenario would still bring hurricane conditions to the coast, but it could be more of a glancing blow, not the full force of a direct eyewall hit.
I expect more forecast changes as we move through the weekend. The margin of error between a glancing blow, and a direct onshore hit is very small.
Stay tuned.