Cooler but still well above normal this week

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, the weather hits just keep on comin’.

Dorian put a direct hit on Cape Hatteras and the Outer Banks Friday morning. The sudden surge inundated streets and homes on Ocracoke and Hatteras Islands.

The USGS tidal gauge at Hatteras Island spiked about 7 feet as the of wall wind-driven storm surge slammed inland as Dorian’s center swept by.

What happened along the Outer Banks today is the result of a shift in wind direction as Dorian swept by. First, easterly winds ahead of the storm pushed water from Pamlico Sound westward away from Hatteras and Ocracoke. Residents could see the sea bottom, where there was usually water. 

Then storm surge from North Carolina’s 

 whip-lashed across the sound toward the islands as Dorian’s wind shift swept by.  NOAA’s HWRF hurricane model shows the sudden wind shift from east to west as Dorian’s center swept by. That’s what drove the slosh of storm surge back across Pamlico Sound into the Outer Banks.

Our weekend weather still looks sub-par for the first weekend in September. But today’s forecast models look slightly better than they did earlier for this weekend. The trend is for fewer, if any showers Saturday. Sunday’s rain is tending south, but much of southern Minnesota including the Twin Cities could get wet Sunday.

The weekend still looks cool. Temperatures recover back into the 70s next week.

Next week’s weather maps look wet. Two separate rain systems push across Minnesota. The first shot comes Monday. The next shot arrives Wednesday and Thursday.

Many models suggest the potential for 1 to 3 inches of rain across Minnesota next week. Here’s NOAA’s GFS rainfall output.

The longer range maps for late September suggest summery temperatures may linger this year. This weekend looks cool, but as of right now I don’t see any early-season cold snaps coming our way. 

The upper air maps suggest a mostly mild (but periodically wet) Pacific flow into late September.

The medium-range forecast models suggest more 70s, and even another shot at 80 degrees in mid to late September.

NOAA’s latest week 3-4 outlook favors milder than average air across much of the U.S. into early October.

Weather and Climate News

Updraft® - Minnesota Weather News

Paul Huttner

Author

Dorian’s surge inundated parts of the Outer Banks

NOAA via tropical tidbits

Twin Cities National Weather Service

NOAA via Weather Bell

NOAA upper air map for Thursday September 19

NOAA

16-day GFS model temperature output for Minneapolis 

Dorian swamps Outer Banks; mild end of September in Minnesota?

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