Occasional storms Monday; severe risk peaks late afternoon, evening

A few storms may be strong

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Keep an eye on your favorite radar app and an ear to MPR News.

We’re changing air masses across Minnesota Monday. A lazy warm front bubbles north from Iowa. Warmer, more humid air feeds thunderstorm development. There is a slight risk for severe storms from the Twin Cities south later.

The best chance for watches and warnings favors the late afternoon and evening hours. Storms have the potential to bring heavy downpours, hail, high winds and even isolated tornadoes.

Two rain waves?

Many of the short-range models favor two main bands of storms developing in southern Minnesota Monday.

The first sweeps north through southern Minnesota Monday morning and arrives in the Twin Cities during the midday hours. The second wave likely develops later Monday afternoon into the evening.

The hours between 5 p.m. and 9 p.m. could be especially stormy in the Twin Cities.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s NAM 3 km resolution model paints occasional shower and thunderstorm bands moving northeast across Minnesota Monday afternoon and evening.

NOAA NAM 3 km resolution model
NOAA NAM 3 km resolution model through 9 p.m. Monday night
NOAA, via tropical tidbits

Heavy rainfall potential this week

Tuesday feels summery across Minnesota. The next low-pressure wave arrives Wednesday and Thursday. With summer-like dew points in the 60s, the potential for heavy rain is there this week. Many locations across Minnesota may pick up another 2 to 4 inches this week, with locally heavier totals.

Our near-record soggy year continues.

Rainfall potential this week
Rainfall potential this week
Twin Cities National Weather Service

Summer temperatures linger

The upper-air pattern favors continued summer breezes this September. Several days with temperatures in the upper 70s or low 80s look likely through next week. Summer is not done with Minnesota just yet.

NOAA temperature forecast for Minneapolis
Temperature forecast for Minneapolis
NOAA, via Weather Bell

NOAA’s medium-range temperature outlooks favor warmer than average temperatures for most of September.

NOAA 8-14 day temperature outlook
8-14 day temperature outlook

Stay tuned.