Rain Forest: Records, overnight thunder; soggy Saturday; 70 next week?

Another inch of rain for some

Here we go again.

Our relentlessly wet 2019 kicks into overdrive again Saturday. The next low-pressure wave drives rain across Minnesota overnight and most of Saturday. This is the wettest year on record so far in the Twin Cities. Rochester has already broken the annual record wettest full-year.

And Minnesota is not alone. Several locations in the Upper Midwest are recording the wettest year on record to date. And most of the region ranks in the top 3 wettest years.

The Twin Cities has logged 36.07” of precipitation so far this year. That’s 10.5” above average and just about 4” shy of the all-time annual precipitation record set in 2016.

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Rochester has logged an eye-popping 47.36” of precipitation so far this year. That already surpasses the all-time full-year record of 43.94” from 1990.

2019 Rochester precipitation
2019 Rochester precipitation
NOAA

Five of the 11 wettest years on record in Rochester have occurred since 2000.

Saturday soaker

There no sugar coating Saturday’s forecast. The morning looks like a washout. Rain develops in southwest Minnesota late tonight and moves into the Twin Cities after midnight. By Saturday morning most of the state is wet. Early Saturday morning brings the heaviest heavy rain and thunder threat to the Twin Cities.

NOAA NAM 3 km model through Saturday
NOAA NAM 3 km model through Saturday
NOAA via tropical tidbits

Rain intensity should taper off late morning into the afternoon hours.

Another inch?

Widespread rainfall totals between .50” and 1” are likely by Saturday night. The favored zone for some 1”+ totals centers on the Twin Cities.

Canadian model rainfall output through Saturday
Canadian model rainfall output through Saturday
Environment Canada via tropical tidbits

Drier and milder next week

Sunday morning’s Twin Cities Marathon looks cool but dry. Temperatures hover near 46 at race time, warming to near 56 by noon. Gusty west winds between 15 and 30 mph will make it feel like the 30s at the starting line.

Our weather mellows Monday through next Wednesday. Highs reach the low 60s Monday, with 65 to 70 Tuesday and Wednesday.

Temperature forecast for Minneapolis
Temperature forecast for Minneapolis
NOAA via Weather Bell

Fall color peak up north

Fall colors are peaking now across northern Minnesota. The Twin Cities is still between 25 to 50 percent color.

Fall color report
Fall color report
Minnesota DNR