Storms start to move out of Minnesota, continue for western Wisconsin

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Forecast model consensus is starting to emerge on our late-week storm system. If the model trends are right, this could be an early cold-season blizzard for eastern North Dakota and parts of the Red River Valley.

 is posted for parts of eastern North Dakota and the northwest corner of Minnesota.

For most of Minnesota, we enjoy two more mild days before the weather begins to turn. Highs reach 70 degrees across most of Minnesota Tuesday afternoon.

Thursday marks a temperature transition day across Minnesota. By Friday you’ll be reminded of two undeniable facts. 

forecast trends for eastern North Dakota and the Red River Valley

. Forecast models have begun to cluster around the notion of heavy snow with driving winds across eastern North Dakota and the Red River Valley by Friday. 

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Global Forecast System model was the far eastern outlier with snowfall accumulations well into northern Minnesota. It has now moved closer to the Canadian and European model solutions. 

The model consensus is close enough on the geography of the snow zone I feel comfortable posting a couple of still early model snowfall projections. Focus on the geographic distributions here, and not necessarily on projected totals.

The Canadian model favors the heaviest snows across eastern North Dakota grazing the Red River Valley.

The American (GFS) model places the snow bull’s eye across the Red River Valley. The GFS totals are prolific and 40-plus inches may be overdone.

The National Weather Service Grand Forks, N.D., office notes there is still a good deal of uncertainty on the eventual heavy snow zone.

At this point, all scenarios favor only some snow showers for the Twin Cities Friday night and Saturday.

Paul Huttner

Author

Early winter storm looks likely for Red River Valley.

NOAA

NOAA via Weather Bell

Canadian model snowfall potential by Sunday morning

Environment Canada via tropical tidbits

NOAA GFS snowfall output by Sunday morning

Models gaining consensus on likely snow zone

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