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Early winter: 2 to 4 inches likely south of the Twin Cities

Weather maps look more December than November.

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Winter is here early this year.

Our fleeting six-month 2019 warm season is gone. The cold air in place is ready to yield the season’s first plowable snow for southern Minnesota.  

A winter weather advisory is posted for southern Minnesota Tuesday night into Wednesday. It includes the cities of Mankato, Waseca, Owatonna, Blue Earth, and Albert Lea

Winter weather advisory
Winter weather advisory
Twin Cities National Weather Service

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY... 

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to locally 4 inches.

 * WHERE...Blue Earth, Waseca, Steele, Faribault and Freeborn Counties. 

* WHEN...From 6 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

Twin Cities rides northern edge

The bulk of forecast models agree the Twin Cities will ride the northern edge of the snow zone. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Global Forecast System model is typical of those placing the heaviest snow across southeast Minnesota with the northern edge of the snow band right through the Twin Cities.

NOAA GFS model
Global Forecast System model from 6 p.m. Tuesday night through noon Wednesday
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, via tropical tidbits

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model snowfall output suggests around one-half inch for much of the Twin Cities, with 2 to 4 inches south. Little or no snow is expected in the northern Twin Cities.

European model (ECMWF) snowfall output
European model snowfall output
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, via pivotal weather

With temperatures in the teens and 20s, untreated roads will get slick fast Wednesday morning. 

Here’s the Twin Cities National Weather Service projected snowfall map.

Snowfall projection
Snowfall projection
Twin Cities National Weather Service

Record cold next week?

This deep pool of cold air extends all the way to Alaska. 

That’s going to keep Minnesota running a good 10 to 20 degrees lower than average.

Temperature forecast for Minneapolis
Temperature forecast for Minneapolis
NOAA, via Weather Bell

Temperatures next week may approach record cold levels in Minnesota with sub-zero readings up north and low temperatures close to zero in the Twin Cities. 

I know. It’s like, November. Not January. 

Stay tuned.