European model: Thanksgiving week snow chances growing?

When the European model speaks, meteorologists listen. And the latest European model run suggests a growing potential for significant snow Thanksgiving week.

First, radars are tracking light rain and snow echoes across Minnesota overnight.

Overnight rain and snow

A weak low-pressure wave brings light precipitation into Tuesday morning. It’s warm enough for mostly rain with a few snow showers possible in the Twin Cities and southern Minnesota.

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s North American Mesoscale Forecast System(NAM) 3 km resolution model seems to have a good handle on rain and snow zones into Tuesday morning.

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NOAA NAM 3 km model into Tuesday
NOAA via tropical tidbits

Most of the accumulating snow by Tuesday morning falls across central and northern Minnesota. But again, any snowy coating will be light.

A stronger system Wednesday night into Thursday favors mostly rain for the Twin Cities but could produce a few inches of snow up north.

Mild bias this week

The average high for the Twin Cities slips to 38 degrees this week. We’ll see several highs in the 40s over the next few days. Wednesday looks like the mildest day in the next week.

Temperature forecast for Twin Cities
NOAA via Weather Bell

Euro: Significant snow next Wednesday?

Monday’s European model (ECMWF) run will get meteorologists’ attention. It’s just one run, but when the Euro speaks, we tend to listen. The Euro cranks up a possible snow system into the Upper Midwest the day before Thanksgiving.

It’s still more than a week out, but the Euro map for next Wednesday morning suggests a powerful low-pressure system cold enough for snow moving north through Iowa.