Frigid temperatures this weekend prompt cold weather advisories

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This is one of those weeks when I can’t wait for the next forecast model run. 

The possible Thanksgiving-week snow event 

 looked like it was a possible model hiccup 

Today’s latest model runs suggest Monday’s solutions may be onto something snowy Thanksgiving week.  

But first, let’s detail our next rain and snow system arriving on Wednesday night.

Rain and snow Wednesday night and Thursday

Our next weather maker arrives on Wednesday night. NOAA’s Global Forecast System (GFS) model seems to have a decent handle on rain spreading into most of Minnesota Wednesday evening with snow up north. Precipitation likely changes to snow in the Twin Cities as the system exits Thursday.

It’s warm enough in the lower atmosphere for mostly rain in the Twin Cities and southern Minnesota. A few inches of snow are likely up north.

The European model is in line with many that suggest widespread 2- to 4-plus-inch snowfall totals up north by later Thursday. We’ll likely see just a coating in the Twin Cities Thursday.

Don’t look now, but our average daily high and low temperatures in the Twin Cities slip to 36 and 22 by Sunday. Temperatures run a few degrees milder than average through the weekend. Wednesday and Sunday will be the warmest days. Holiday lights up this weekend anyone?

Possible pre-Thanksgiving storm: On again?

The suite of numerical weather forecast models I look at daily is keeping life interesting. 

Yesterday, the European model suggested a dump of snow the day before Thanksgiving. The overnight run dumped that idea and pasted up a sunny symbol for next Wednesday. 

Today’s Euro run suggests significant snow again next Tuesday night and Wednesday. Again, take everything with a shaker of salt this far out. But the latest Euro run spins a low-pressure system up through Wisconsin next Wednesday.

That solution would bring heavy snow potential (and major holiday travel impacts) to Minnesota just before Thanksgiving. 

And NOAA’s GFS model has come into line with the notion of a snow system close to home next Tuesday night and Wednesday. 

I won’t put snowfall totals maps up yet. But they are suggesting seriously plowable snow close to home next Tuesday and Wednesday. It’s still early.

Stay tuned to see what tomorrow’s model runs bring. Every day is like Weather Christmas now unwrapping a new forecast model run. 

Weather and Climate News

Updraft® - Minnesota Weather News

Paul Huttner

Author

Chances for a significant snow event next week?

NOAA GFS model  this Wednesday night and Thursday

NOAA via tropical tidbits

Twin Cities National Weather Service

ECMWF via tropical tidbits

NOAA via Weather Bell

European model forecast for 6 pm Wednesday November 27

European model forecast for Twin Cities next Tuesday and Wednesday

ECMWF via Met Norway

NOAA GFS model Wednesday night through Thursday

White Thanksgiving? Models cranking out potential snow again next week

Go Deeper.

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