Winter storm warning north; a few metro flakes Thursday
Models still hint at possible Thanksgiving week rain or snow
The winter weather season is on for northern Minnesota.
Winter storm warnings and winter weather advisories are in effect into Thursday across northern Minnesota. Snow is flying up north. Overnight rain changes to a few hours of wet snow in the Twin Cities Thursday before the system pulls out.
We come up for air this weekend with temperature mild enough to get those holiday lights up earlier than usual this year.
Northern snow
Winter seems to last a solid six months in northern Minnesota. This November is no exception. Snowfall totals through Thursday approach double-digits in the Arrowhead region.
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Game on.
Including the cities of Ely, Isabella, Hibbing, Two Harbors, Silver Bay, and Grand Marais
135 PM CST Wed Nov 20 2019 ...WINTER STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY...
* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 10 inches.
* WHERE...Central and Northern St. Louis, Cook and Lake counties. This includes the Tribal Lands of the Grand Portage Reservation and the Bois Forte Band, Nett Lake, and Lake Vermillion areas.
* WHEN...Until 9 AM CST Thursday.
* IMPACTS...Travel could become very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the Thursday morning commute.
Twin Cities: Mostly rain
It’s plenty warm enough for mostly rain in the Twin Cities and southern Minnesota. The system pulls in just enough sub-freezing air to generate a band of wet snow Thursday before it pulls out.
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s North American Mesoscale(NAM) 3 km resolution model seems to grab hold of the transition zone from tonight through the morning hours Thursday.
Any snowfall accumulations around most of central and southern Minnesota amount to a fleeting coating at best.
Mild weekend
This weekend skews slightly mild for late November.
Storm next week?
Forecast models still grab hold of an inbound low-pressure system Thanksgiving week. There are significant model differences in storm track and timing, and thus possible rain and snow scenarios. And yes, we’re still about a week out so more changes are on the way.
These two solutions give you an idea of the shifting range of possible solutions next week.
NOAA’s Global Forecast System(GFS) has shifted east on today’s model runs. Here’s the map for late Tuesday night from this morning’s (12Z) run.
And Wednesday’s European model (ECMWF) still favors significant snow on Thanksgiving Day.
Stay tuned.