Prompts winter weather advisories as cold air moves in Friday night

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The winter weather season is on for northern Minnesota. 

 are in effect into Thursday across northern Minnesota. Snow is flying up north. Overnight rain changes to a few hours of wet snow in the Twin Cities Thursday before the system pulls out.

We come up for air this weekend with temperature mild enough to get those holiday lights up earlier than usual this year. 

Winter seems to last a solid six months in northern Minnesota. This November is no exception. Snowfall totals through Thursday approach double-digits in the Arrowhead region. 

It’s plenty warm enough for mostly rain in the Twin Cities and southern Minnesota. The system pulls in just enough sub-freezing air to generate a band of wet snow Thursday before it pulls out.

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s North American Mesoscale(NAM) 3 km resolution model seems to grab hold of the transition zone from tonight through the morning hours Thursday.

Any snowfall accumulations around most of central and southern Minnesota amount to a fleeting coating at best.

This weekend skews slightly mild for late November. 

Forecast models still grab hold of an inbound low-pressure system Thanksgiving week. There are significant model differences in storm track and timing, and thus possible rain and snow scenarios. And yes, we’re still about a week out so more changes are on the way. 

These two solutions give you an idea of the shifting range of possible solutions next week. 

NOAA’s Global Forecast System(GFS) has shifted east on today’s model runs. Here’s the map for late Tuesday night from this morning’s (12Z) run.

And Wednesday’s European model (ECMWF) still favors significant snow on Thanksgiving Day. 

Weather and Climate News

Updraft® - Minnesota Weather News

Paul Huttner

Author

Significant snow for northern Minnesota into Thursday.

ECMWF via pivotal weather

NOAA NAM 3 km model through Thursday morning

NOAA via tropical tidbits

Twin Cities National Weather Service

NOAA via Weather Bell

NOAA GFS model for midnight Wednesday November 27

European model (ECMWF) forecast next week

Winter storm warning north; a few metro flakes Thursday

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