Updraft® - Minnesota Weather News

Nice late November weekend; Iowa and Wisconsin pre-Thanksgiving snow?

Still considerable forecast model spread Thanksgiving week.

I’m giving this weekend 7 of 10 Weather Lab stars for late November.

The average high and low for the Twin Cities are 36 and 22 by Sunday. Temperatures run a good 5 to 10 degrees above average across Minnesota this weekend.

That means highs in the 30s up north and 40s for the Twin Cities and southern Minnesota. A few bank thermometers southwest of the Twin Cities could flash 50-degrees Sunday afternoon.

High temperature forecast Sunday
High temperature forecast Sunday
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Temperatures into next week favor highs in the 30s across most of Minnesota.

Temperature forecast for Twin Cities
Temperature forecast for Twin Cities
NOAA via Weather Bell

Thanksgiving week travel preview

The forecast models are looking better for pre-Thanksgiving travel in Minnesota. But if you’re heading to Des Moines, Madison, Milwaukee or Chicago it may be a different story.

The latest model consensus favors a possible rain and accumulating snow system tracking through Iowa into southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois on Tuesday and Wednesday. The forecast tracks may still change. The current Global Forecast System model scenario suggests far southeast Minnesota could ride the edge of accumulating snow Tuesday night.

NOAA GFS model Tuesday and Wednesday
NOAA GFS model Tuesday and Wednesday
NOAA via tropical tidbits

Thanksgiving weekend snow chance?

The European model continues to tease Minnesota with a possible approaching snow system sometime last Thanksgiving weekend.

European model (ECMWF) forecast next weekend
European model (ECMWF) forecast Thanksgiving weekend
NOAA via Weather Bell

Snowfall update

So far, the Twin Cities is running about 4 inches below average for season snowfall. Pats of southern and northern Minnesota have picked up above-average snowfall.

Slight mild bias emerging this winter?

It’s hard to give too much credence to the current seasonal temperatures forecasts for winter given our frigid start to November. But the long-range forecast models are coming up milder than average for much of North America this winter.

C3S multi system winter temperature anomaly forecast
C3S multi system winter temperature anomaly forecast
ECMWF Climate Change Service

Keep in mind that even if winter temperatures run a couple of degrees warmer than average overall, that’s still a rigorous winter at this latitude. And it’s still plenty cold enough for snow.

Stay tuned.