Cooler but still well above normal this week

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I’m giving this weekend 7 of 10 Weather Lab stars for late November. 

The average high and low for the Twin Cities are 36 and 22 by Sunday. Temperatures run a good 5 to 10 degrees above average across Minnesota this weekend. 

That means highs in the 30s up north and 40s for the Twin Cities and southern Minnesota. A few bank thermometers southwest of the Twin Cities could flash 50-degrees Sunday afternoon.

Temperatures into next week favor highs in the 30s across most of Minnesota.

The forecast models are looking better for pre-Thanksgiving travel in Minnesota. But if you’re heading to Des Moines, Madison, Milwaukee or Chicago it may be a different story.

The latest model consensus favors a possible rain and accumulating snow system tracking through Iowa into southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois on Tuesday and Wednesday. The forecast tracks may still change. The current Global Forecast System model scenario suggests far southeast Minnesota could ride the edge of accumulating snow Tuesday night.

The European model continues to tease Minnesota with a possible approaching snow system sometime last Thanksgiving weekend. 

So far, the Twin Cities is running about 4 inches below average for season snowfall. Pats of southern and northern Minnesota have picked up above-average snowfall.

It’s hard to give too much credence to the current seasonal temperatures forecasts for winter given our frigid start to November. But the long-range forecast models are coming up milder than average for much of North America this winter.

Keep in mind that even if winter temperatures run a couple of degrees warmer than average overall, that’s still a rigorous winter at this latitude. And it’s still plenty cold enough for snow.

Weather and Climate News

Updraft® - Minnesota Weather News

Paul Huttner

Author

NOAA

NOAA via Weather Bell

NOAA via tropical tidbits

European model (ECMWF) forecast next weekend

C3S multi system winter temperature anomaly forecast 

Nice late November weekend; Iowa and Wisconsin pre-Thanksgiving snow?

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