Frigid temperatures this weekend prompt cold weather advisories

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Here we go Minnesota. The snow season of 2019-20 cranks up with vigor this Thanksgiving week. 

 kicks in Tuesday night and Wednesday for a good chunk of southern Minnesota including the Twin Cities area.

Two potent low-pressure systems arrive between now and Sunday. The first brings heavy snow to a good chunk of southern Minnesota, northern Iowa and Wisconsin. The second system winds up Friday into Sunday with another possible wintry mix of snow, ice and rain.

At least Thanksgiving Day looks quiet. Let’s break down the systems.

System No. 1: Tuesday night into Wednesday

This will be the first major snowstorm of the season for many locations in southern Minnesota including the Twin Cities. There is fairly good forecast model consensus on a likely storm track just south of Des Moines, Iowa to Green Bay, Wis. 

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Global Forecast System model paints the likely snow zone spreading across southern Minnesota Tuesday into Wednesday.

The forecast model range of snowfall totals is fairly consistent give or take a few inches here or there. Forecast models indicate snow-to-water ratios close to 10 to 1 with this system. 

Right now, I’m still leaning toward the model solution from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts that suggests a solid 4- to 8-inch zone from St. Cloud through the Twin Cities. 

The best chance of 10 inches or more favors the heavier snow bands closer to the low center in a zone from Albert Lea to Rochester in Minnesota, east to Eau Claire, Wis.

Winds will increase out of the north Tuesday night into Wednesday. Winds gusting from 30 to 40-plus mph will cause blowing and drifting in open areas. The worst travel impacts will be late Tuesday night into at least midday Wednesday. 

The good news about this holiday weekend is that Thanksgiving Day looks cold but quiet. We’ll be in between storm systems across Minnesota. Temperatures will have a more wintry feel for the next week.

The back end of Thanksgiving weekend brings another potent inbound low. 

There is less model consensus on temperature profile and thus precipitation type and distribution with the second system. That could mean a mix of rain, ice and snow for parts of southern Minnesota. Precipitation is more likely to be all snow up north.

The most credible and actionable forecast information at this time is to be prepared for a possible wintry mix in the Friday through Sunday time frame.

As we say in the weather biz, stay tuned.

Weather and Climate News

Updraft® - Minnesota Weather News

Paul Huttner

Author

The first storm starts Tuesday, delivering heavy snow to a good chunk of southern Minnesota, northern Iowa and Wisconsin. A second storm Friday into Sunday brings another possible wintry mix of snow, ice, and rain.

Hanna Dahlberg walks on snow-covered steps at College of St. Scholastica.

Derek Montgomery for MPR News

Twin Cities National Weather Service

NOAA GFS model Tuesday night and Wednesday

Very white Thanksgiving: Wintry storms likely before and after Thanksgiving

Go Deeper.

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