Updraft® - Minnesota Weather News

Temperature whiplash ahead: Mild now, subzero next week?

Seasons's coldest air mass so far likely next week

Buckle up Minnesota. We’re about to get some wild temperature swings in the next week.

We’re riding the northern edge of a milder air mass in Minnesota this week. Tuesday’s high of 38 degrees in the Twin Cities is 7 degrees warmer than the average of 31.

Temperatures Tuesday afternoon
Temperatures Tuesday afternoon
Oklahoma Mesonet

Current snow depth in Minnesota ranges from a couple of inches in parts of southwestern Minnesota to nearly 2 feet around Duluth.

Our current mild air mass lingers on Wednesday. Highs reach the 30s again across much of Minnesota. Highs in the 50s sneak as close as Des Moines, Iowa.

High temperature forecast Wednesday
High temperature forecast Wednesday
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Temperature whiplash ahead

You’ll notice Thursday’s cold front. Winds kick into the northwest Thursday afternoon. Temperatures plunge Friday morning and the Twin Cities staggers to near 20 degrees. Northern Minnesota hovers in the teens.

Temperatures recover for a milder weekend. The numbers below may be conservative this weekend. We could hit 40 in the Twin Cities this weekend.

Temperature forecast for Minneapolis
Temperature forecast for Minneapolis
NOAA, via Weather Bell

Arctic blast next week

The upper air pattern over North America changes dramatically next week. The jet stream buckles south driving a deep and frigid upper air trough into the Midwest.

Upper air forecast map for 6 pm December 11
Upper air forecast map for 6 p.m. Dec. 11.
NOAA

The European, Canadian and American models all grab hold of the big changes next week.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Global Forecast System 16-day output continues to crank out the first sub-zero outbreak of the season for the Twin Cities.

Keep in mind these products are better with trends than the actual magnitude of numbers. That means high confidence we’re going to feel much colder next week. Lower confidence in precisely how cold and how long it will last.

NOAA GFS model 16-day temperature outlook for Minneapolis
NOAA GFS model 16-day temperature outlook for Minneapolis
NOAA via Meteostar

Stay tuned.