Temperature whiplash: 30s Thursday, 50 degrees colder next week?

Arctic outbreak still lurking next week

European model (ECMWF) windchill forecast 6 a.m. on Jan. 16.
European model (ECMWF) windchill forecast 6 a.m. on Jan. 16.
ECMWF via pivotal weather

Thermometers across Minnesota will get a rigorous workout in the next week.

First, we watch thermometers rise overnight into Thursday morning.

Temperatures peak Thursday in the mid-30s near the Twin Cities. Temperatures in the 40s are likely Thursday in Rochester, Minn., and La Crosse, Minn. A very un-January air mass covers the Midwest Thursday south of Minnesota with the 50s as close as Iowa and temperatures near 60 degrees in Kansas City Thursday.

January golf in Des Moines anyone?

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High temperature forecast Thursday
High temperature forecast Thursday
NOAA

Teens return Friday and Saturday

Out Thursday warmup is a one-hit-wonder. Cold air plunges back into Minnesota Friday. We recover early next week again before the bottom drops out next Wednesday.

Temperature forecast for Twin Cities
Temperature forecast for the Twin Cities.
NOAA via Weather Bell

Season’s coldest shot next Thursday?

The maps continue to crank a bitter arctic air mass south into Minnesota next Wednesday. The precise magnitude is still in question. The one-week out upper air forecast still place a deep, cold upper wave over Hudson Bay, with a brittle flow south into Minnesota.

Upper air forecast map for 6 pm January 16
Upper air forecast map for 6 p.m. Jan. 16.
NOAA

Where’s the bottom?

Models often back off on forecast temps as an extreme cold event approaches. The latest model runs suggest the core of the coldest air will pass over Minnesota next Thursday morning. The latest forecast model runs suggest temperatures bottoming out around minus 16 to minus 18 in the Twin Cities.

It could get as cold as minus 35 in far northwest Minnesota.

European model (ECMWF) temperature forecast 6 am Thursday January 16
European model (ECMWF) temperature forecast 6 a.m. on Jan. 16.
ECMWF via pivotal weather

Dangerous wind chills

Factor in the wind next week and we could see windchill levels to the minus 50s up north.

European model (ECMWF) wind chill forecast 6 am Thursday January 16
European model (ECMWF) windchill forecast 6 a.m., Jan. 16.
ECMWF via pivotal weather

The medium-range forecast overall for mid to late January favors colder than average temperatures across the Upper Midwest.

NOAA 8 to 14-day temperature outlook
NOAA eight-to-14-day temperature outlook.
NOAA

Stay tuned.