Frigid temperatures this weekend prompt cold weather advisories

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All major forecast models are locking onto a major winter storm for Minnesota Friday. This system looks strong, wet, and probably cold enough for mostly snow across Minnesota. And some forecast models are cranking out double-digit snowfall totals over a foot for parts of Minnesota. That may include the Twin Cities.

Minnesota’s Friday storm is wrapping up off the coast of the Pacific Northwest today. Check out the beautiful, textbook comma-shaped swirl spinning toward the coast on this GOES-16 visible loop.

There is still some forecast model variation on the precise storm track across the Upper Midwest Friday. But the overall picture between models is similar. They spread a shield of moderate to heavy snow across Minnesota Friday into Saturday. Enough warm air could work into southern Minnesota for an icy mix. Further south in Iowa it looks warm enough for rain.

Snow likely begins in southwest Minnesota Friday morning and spreads into the Twin Cities during the morning or midday hours. The heaviest snowfall likely arrives Friday afternoon and Friday night.

Here’s NOAA’s GFS model solution for Friday and Saturday.

I hope this isn’t a fool’s errand, but the consistency of the forecast models this week gives me higher than usual confidence on the notion of heavy snowfall totals for most of Minnesota. There is fairly good agreement on widespread 6” to 12” totals across most of Minnesota. And a core of higher-end totals over a foot looks increasingly likely.

Here’s the Canadian model snowfall output through Sunday morning. Look away if snow-squeamish.

It should be noted the GFS model is cranking out even higher totals up to 15 inches for the Twin Cities. The snow to water ratio for this storm looks to average around 10:1, meaning a fairly wet snow.

At this point, the best weather advice for Friday and Saturday is to expect potentially heavy snow. Winter storm watches and warnings are likely, if not certain. Winds will increase on the backside of the system Saturday as temperatures drop. 

Be ready for a major shot of snow and winter weather Friday into Saturday. Expect winter storm watches and warnings to be issued in the next 24 hours. (Update: Here’s the 

Stay tuned as we watch forecast model runs for any potential changes.

Weather and Climate News

Updraft® - Minnesota Weather News

Paul Huttner

Author

Forecast models are locking in on a major winter storm for Minnesota Friday.

MPR Photo/Jeffrey Thompson

NOAA GOES-16 visible loop Wednesday afternoon

NOAA

NOAA via tropical tidbits

Canadian model snowfall output by Sunday morning

A foot of snow? Major winter storm taking aim Friday

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