Blizzard warnings in Northwest Minnesota, winter weather advisories across the state

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It’s kind of a game among weather forecasters. When forecast models see a big change coming up, how much credibility can we put into them? It’s an important question with real weather forecast consequences when big changes happen.

And it’s more than a hypothetical weather exercise on Thursday.

Our forecast changes begin with a Saturday warm front. Mild Pacific air blows in Saturday. By Sunday, temperatures will run about 20 degrees warmer than today. Highs in the 40s arrive in southern Minnesota. And it will be warm enough for a leisurely round of golf in Des Moines.

Next week will be significantly milder. Temperatures bounce between the 30s and 40s next week. By late next week, an even stronger push of mild Pacific air surges in.

Forecast models suggest temperatures in the 50s to near 60 degrees across southern Minnesota next weekend. Here’s the European model temperature forecast for noon March 7.

How reliable are the models a week in advance?

The best thing to remember is that forecast models do better with bigger patterns a week out. So, they’re much better at gauging large-scale temperature trends, than smaller precipitation systems.

So, I have a good deal of confidence it’s going to warm up considerably late next week. Just how much remains to be seen. Right now I’d give it a 50-50 shot at exceeding 50 degrees in the Twin Cities late next week.

Weather and Climate News

Updraft® - Minnesota Weather News

Paul Huttner

Author

Forecast models suggest temperatures in the 50s to near 60 degrees across southern Minnesota next Friday. But how reliable are they a week in advance?

NOAA

European model (ECMWF) temperature forecast noon March 7

Pattern change: 50s to near 60 in southern Minnesota next weekend?

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