Red lines: Warmest air in 5 months ahead Sunday
Temperatures soar into the 60s this weekend in southern Minnesota
The Weather Lab is issuing a Cargo Shorts Watch for this weekend. It will likely be upgraded to a warning tomorrow.
Okay, maybe (hopefully) your fashion sense is a little more updated. But regardless of your style, expect to see some things you haven’t seen in Minnesota for nearly 5 months. T-Shirts and bare legs ahead.
The last time the Twin Cities hit 60 degrees was on October 20th when the mercury topped out at a balmy 67 degrees.
Tranquil Friday
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I’m always amazed by how quickly Minnesota weather changes. Thursday’s blustery winds and snow shower attacks made for a typical March day.
But Friday will feel quite different. A lazy wedge of high pressure drifts across Minnesota Friday. A cool morning gives way to pristine blue skies and a milder afternoon. Light winds and a noticeably stronger March sun combine for an almost tranquil afternoon.
Spring is the promise that summer keeps in Minnesota. Our tranquil early spring Friday afternoon is the preview of coming weekend attractions.
Warm advection pattern
Check out NOAA’s GFS model run below. Focus on two things. See the isobars (solid black lines) crowding across Minnesota in the middle of the loop Saturday? That’s the southerly wind flow blowing in milder air.
Now, look at the dashed red lines moving north. Those are what meteorologists call thickness lines. They represent the thickness of the atmosphere between the ground and about 18,000 feet in decameters. When those higher-value red lines (warmer air) are pushed north into Minnesota we call that warm advection.
The thickness of around 556 decameters in southern Minnesota suggests an air mass capable of rapid warming by Sunday afternoon. If the forecast of abundant sunshine holds, temperatures will easily soar into the 60s Sunday afternoon from the Twin Cities southward.
One more note. Forecast model temperature output often falls short of actual temperatures in extreme situations like this. I won’t be the least bit shocked to see 70 degrees Sunday afternoon somewhere in southern Minnesota. Maybe even in the Twin Cities.
Good timing
The warmest two days of the week falling on the weekend? Two weekends in a row? In March?
Exceptional timing.
Stay tuned.