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A company that maps digital smart-thermometers may be detecting predictive connections between fevers and COVID-19 trends. 

Recent data collected and analyzed by smart digital thermometer-maker 

As many as 150,000 of those individual fever readings are crowdsourced through the internet and that data produces a “health weather map” tracking illness trends across the United States. 

The company is clear to say that their map and data are not direct evidence of COVID-19 cases. But they do say unusual regional fever levels, and what they detect as “atypical illness” may be an early indicator of the spread of COVID-19. 

Here’s is how Kinsa describes their data in relation to COVID-19.

With that in mind, I decided to take a look at what Kinsa Smart Thermometer data is showing in various cities. Some interesting trends may be emerging. Maybe.

New York City is clearly a COVID-19 hot spot. But the Kinsa data shows an interesting recent trend in overall fever reductions. 

Fevers in New York County (Manhattan) were near expected seasonal levels on March 3. Then fever levels surged in the following two weeks. The level of what Kinsa calls “atypical illness” peaked 6.53 percent on March 17. That’s nearly 3 percent above expected levels. 

Kinsa data also shows atypical fevers in NYC have fallen since March 17. They now show a 4.2 percent rate, just 0.7 percent above the expected range. The number of fevers in NYC is dropping and nearly back into the upper part of the “expected” range. The data shows a decrease in “illness trend” of 5.93 percent in New York County.

Seattle was likely the first COVID-19 cluster in the U.S. Kinsa data shows fevers were near expected levels on March 1. Then the number of fevers surged well above expected seasonal levels and peaked March 9.  They peaked at 5.48 percent, nearly 2 percent above expected seasonal levels. 

Since March 9, the level of fever has fallen into the expected range on March 22. The “illness trend” has recently decreased by 5.62 percent according to Kinsa data.

Minnesota has been fortunate to see far lower levels of COVID-19 so far. We also had more time to adjust and increase social distancing. The Kinsa data shows Hennepin County has seen below-average seasonal illness levels overall. 

Overall cases in Minnesota continue to increase. Thursday’s 

update from the Minnesota Department of Health

 shows 346 confirmed cases in Minnesota. While Minnesota’s numbers are lower than many states, the curve is still rising.

Here are my observations of what the Kinsa data may be telling us — again 

. Keep in mind this is only one data set. I am skeptical if the sample size is large enough to capture trends accurately. 

Again, this data is relatively new and great caution needs to be exercised before reading too much into the trends. There’s still so much we don’t know about how COVID-19 works. And temperature trends could also be reflecting a reduction in seasonal flu. New regional hot zones may emerge, especially in areas that are not practicing social distancing. 

But if this data accurately reflects disease spread trends with COVID-19, it suggests many places may be on the way to reduced 

 COVID-19 cases in the next few weeks. Given the lag time between fever and confirmed tests, we may not know for a couple of weeks if the trends manifest.

Crowdsourced Kinsa smart thermometer data seems to have accurately predicted the rise in COVID-19 cases. Could current trends accurately predict a slowdown in news cases in the weeks ahead?

Weather and Climate News

Updraft® - Minnesota Weather News

Health

COVID-19

Paul Huttner

Author

A company that produces internet-connected digital thermometers may be detecting data trends between fevers and COVID-19 cases across the country.

Kinsa via OpenStreetMap

KINSA/OpenStreetMap

Kinsa

Kinsa fever data from King County, Washington

Can a 'Health Weather Map' detect COVID-19 trends?

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