Saturday soaker: Storm pushing rain and snow into Minnesota
An inch of moisture is likely across much of Minnesota.
Here we go.
A strong late-March low-pressure storm is taking aim at Minnesota Saturday. The system will be warm enough for mostly rain across southern Minnesota. But just enough sub-freezing air will work into the system to crank out accumulating snowfall for northeast Minnesota.
Let’s break down the forecast details for the weekend.
The system
This is a potent low-pressure storm. It winds up near Omaha Saturday, then tracks over Des Moines to La Crosse headed for Green Bay Sunday.
Create a More Connected Minnesota
MPR News is your trusted resource for the news you need. With your support, MPR News brings accessible, courageous journalism and authentic conversation to everyone - free of paywalls and barriers. Your gift makes a difference.
A few vanguard light showers may break out across southern Minnesota overnight. But the main body of rain spreads across southern Minnesota Saturday morning. It spreads north into the Twin Cities later in the morning and midday hours. Snow mixes in across much of northeast Minnesota by Saturday night.
The Canadian model shows the progression of the system.
Soaking rains
This system is loaded with moisture. The heaviest rainfall arrives late Saturday afternoon through Saturday night. Embedded downpours may produce thunder and lightning. An inch of rain is likely for much of southern Minnesota. Some of this will fall as snow across central and northeast Minnesota.
Snowfall accumulation
The highest snowfall totals favor northeast Minnesota. Snowfall totals depend on how soon precipitation changes to snow. A general 3-to-6-inch zone appears likely. I could see some locally higher totals in northeast Minnesota.
Here’s the Duluth NWS view of events as of Friday morning.
A few models suggest higher snowfall totals in some areas. This is probably overdone in terms of magnitude, but I like the spatial look of how NOAA’s NAM 3 km resolution model lays out the snowfall zone.
Milder early next week
A blustery Sunday gives way to a tranquil Monday across Minnesota. Highs reach the upper 50s to near 60 degrees in southern Minnesota Monday. We’ll be melting some snow up north.
Temperatures stay mild through Wednesday, then fall later next week.
The average high temperatures in the Twin Cities hits 50 degrees on April 1. No foolin’.
Easy March so far
This has been an easy March so far for most of Minnesota. Temperatures are running 4.8 degrees higher than average so far this month in the Twin Cities. Most of the Midwest is running mild this month. The Red River Valley has been slightly cooler than average.
The Twin Cities has managed just 1.3 inches of snowfall this month. That’s about 8 inches below average. It’s also nearly good enough for a top 10 least snowiest March on record. The Twin Cities managed just 1 inch of snow three different years in March.
Snowfall has been more abundant across northern Minnesota. International Falls has recorded 13 inches of snow this month. That’s 6 inches above average.