Updraft® - Minnesota Weather News

Spring, fall and summer — in the next two weeks?

The next two weeks may bring three seasons to Minnesota

seasons
seasons
NOAA

Get ready for more Minnesota weather whiplash.

One thing I love about weather forecasting is watching the one- to two-week forecast period evolve. Weather forecasting and forecast models have come a long way in the course of my 30+ year weather career.

Forecast models are still (significantly) wrong now and then. But overall forecast skill for the five-day forecast is now as good as the three-day forecast was 20 years ago.

European model forecast skill over time
European model forecast skill over time.
Courtesy of ECMWF. Adapted from Simmons and Holligsworth (2002)

The highest skill scores in the one- to two-week range favor temperature trends over precipitation timing. That’s why we often have higher confidence in model output for temperature trends than day to day temperatures or precipitation in medium-range weather forecasting.

2 weeks, 3 seasons?

We know spring weather in Minnesota is mercurial. The weather maps over the next two weeks appear ready to deliver three different weather seasons to Minnesota.

seasons
seasons
NOAA

Spring first

The next few days feature some of the finest spring weather Minnesota has to offer. Plenty of sunshine and high temperatures in the upper 60s and 70s make for perfect outdoor weather. Throw in a rapidly greening landscape, and no mosquitoes and you have a (temporary) weather paradise.

Temperature forecasts for Twin Cities area
Temperature forecasts for Twin Cities area
NOAA via Weather Bell

Next week: Fall?

After our mostly glorious weekend, a significant change looks likely next week. The upper air forecast maps drive a chilly low-pressure wave through the Upper Midwest next week.

Upper air forecast map for 7 pm May 5
Upper air forecast map for 7 p.m. May 5.
NOAA

Temperatures next week may not climb out of the 50s in many areas for a few days.

NOAA GFS model temperature outlook for Wednesday May 6
NOAA GFS model temperature outlook for May 6.
NOAA via tropical tidbits

Morning lows in the 30s will make it feel nippy. Frost looks likely in most of central and northern Minnesota next week. That’s not unusual for May in Minnesota.

Summer in two weeks?

Those same upper air maps suggest a surge of much warmer air in the second week of May.

Upper air forecast map for 7 pm May 13
Upper air forecast map for 7 p.m. May 13.
NOAA

If this pattern verifies, it will blow the warmest air of the year into Minnesota. NOAA’s 16-day GFS temperature output suggests highs well into the 70s to near 80 degrees by May 10-15.

NOAA GFS model 16-day temperature outlook for Twin Cities
NOAA GFS model 16-day temperature outlook for Twin Cities
NOAA via Meteostar

Humid, too?

This one is so far out it’s a low confidence projection at best. But NOAA’s GFS model suggests sticky dew points in the upper 60s to near 70 degrees around May 14.

NOAA GFS model dew point forecast
NOAA GFS model dew point forecast for 1 p.m. May 14.
NOAA via tropical tidbits

So, we could see spring, fall and summerlike weather in the next 16 days across Minnesota.

Stay tuned.

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