Winter storm warnings include northeast Twin Cities

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Get ready for more Minnesota weather whiplash. 

One thing I love about weather forecasting is watching the one- to two-week forecast period evolve. Weather forecasting and forecast models have come a long way in the course of my 30+ year weather career. 

Forecast models are still (significantly) wrong now and then. But overall forecast skill for the five-day forecast is now as good as the three-day forecast was 20 years ago.

The highest skill scores in the one- to two-week range favor temperature 

 over precipitation timing. That’s why we often have higher confidence in model output for temperature trends than day to day temperatures or precipitation in medium-range weather forecasting.

We know spring weather in Minnesota is mercurial. The weather maps over the next two weeks appear ready to deliver three different weather seasons to Minnesota. 

The next few days feature some of the finest spring weather Minnesota has to offer. Plenty of sunshine and high temperatures in the upper 60s and 70s make for perfect outdoor weather. Throw in a rapidly greening landscape, and no mosquitoes and you have a (temporary) weather paradise. 

After our mostly glorious weekend, a significant change looks likely next week. The upper air forecast maps drive a chilly low-pressure wave through the Upper Midwest next week.

Temperatures next week may not climb out of the 50s in many areas for a few days. 

Morning lows in the 30s will make it feel nippy. Frost looks likely in most of central and northern Minnesota next week. That’s not unusual for May in Minnesota.

Those same upper air maps suggest a surge of much warmer air in the second week of May.

If this pattern verifies, it will blow the warmest air of the year into Minnesota. NOAA’s 16-day GFS temperature output suggests highs well into the 70s to near 80 degrees by May 10-15.

This one is so far out it’s a low confidence projection at best. But NOAA’s GFS model suggests sticky dew points in the upper 60s to near 70 degrees around May 14. 

So, we could see spring, fall and summerlike weather in the next 16 days across Minnesota.

Weather and Climate News

Updraft® - Minnesota Weather News

Paul Huttner

Author

The next two weeks may bring three seasons to Minnesota. 

NOAA

Courtesy of ECMWF. Adapted from Simmons and Holligsworth (2002)

Temperature forecasts for Twin Cities area

NOAA via Weather Bell

NOAA GFS model temperature outlook for Wednesday May 6

NOAA via tropical tidbits

NOAA GFS model 16-day temperature outlook for Twin Cities 

Spring, fall and summer — in the next two weeks?

Go Deeper.

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