From freezing to 90 degrees in 2 weeks?
Forecast models suggest huge warming trend. How much can we trust them?
Welcome to Minnesota.
Here you can enjoy frost and snow one weekend, and bask in 90-degree warmth two weeks later. You’ll also enjoy periods of drought, floods, severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and hail, and occasional tornadoes. Maybe we’re missing an opportunity to promote extreme weather tourism in this state?
I wish I had better news for the big fishing opener and Mother’s Day weekend in Minnesota. This is our first big holiday and tourism weekend of the “warm” season. The maps keep hinting at a warmup next week, then a burst of summerlike air in two weeks.
One thing for sure. The 80s will arrive, eventually.
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Freeze warnings, again
Most of the inner Twin Cities core narrowly escaped a killing frost this morning. Lows bottomed out at 35 degrees at both of the main Minneapolis and St. Paul airports. Here are some other selected low temperatures from this morning around the area.
Eau Claire, Wis.: 30 degrees
St. Cloud, Minn.: 32 degrees
Forest Lake, Minn.: 32 degrees
Blaine, Minn.: 34 degrees
Crystal, Minn.: 33 degrees
Eden Prairie, Minn.: 36 degrees
Freeze warnings are up until 8 a.m. for most of southern Minnesota and much of central Wisconsin.
A reminder, National Weather Service does not routinely issue freeze warnings until the typical growing season is underway. Freezing temperatures are still common through May in northern Minnesota.
Overnight lows tonight may again hover just above the freezing mark in the inner Twin Cities metro core.
Chilly weekend
This weekend brings more unseasonably cold air, rain, and possible snow. A clipper spreads mixed rain and snow into Minnesota Saturday. Snow is likely in central Minnesota. Snow may visit the Twin Cities in the hours around and after midnight Saturday night into early Sunday morning. Lovely.
NOAA's GFS model is typical of solutions Saturday.
Warming trend next week
Next week does look milder. Highs in the 60s return by Wednesday.
80s in two weeks?
The longer-range upper air maps continue to insist on much warmer temperatures in about two weeks.
If this pattern verifies, that would push highs into the 80s sometime during the week leading up to Memorial Day weekend. A few model runs have even cranked out highs near 90 degrees as we approach Memorial Day weekend.
From freezing to 90 degrees in two weeks? Nothing about Minnesota weather surprises me anymore.
Stay tuned.