Updraft® - Minnesota Weather News

Instant summer? Medium-range outlooks trending warm

An upper air pattern change brings the warmest air of 2020 so far to Minnesota next week

sunlight reflects from the surface of a lake
Sunlight reflects from the surface of Detroit Lake on May 1, 2020. The lake is a busy summer destination in northwest Minnesota.
Dan Gunderson | MPR News file

We live at the mercy of the wind in Minnesota.

Our position in the center of the continent with no physical obstructions (mountains) means air masses sweep freely from all directions across Minnesota.

Air masses
Air masses
Texas A&M University

And this time of year when winds turn southerly, warmer and humid maritime tropical air masses can sweep in quickly from the Gulf of Mexico.

Upper air pattern change

The upper winds across North America drive weather patterns here on the ground where we live. Take a look at the forecast upper air maps for next week. The bulging lines across southern Canada show a ridge of warm high pressure setting up in the upper atmosphere.

Upper air forecast map for 7 pm May 19
Upper air forecast map for 7 p.m. May 19.
NOAA

This pattern brings summery air into the Upper Midwest this time of year.

From winter to summer in a week

Don’t like the weather in Minnesota? Just wait a week. Temperature output for next week pumps 80s into Minnesota. The Canadian model shows 80s by Tuesday.

Canadian model temperature output Tuesday May 19
Canadian model temperature output May 19.
Environment Canada via tropical tidbits

The European model brings peak warmth Wednesday. It cranks out 87 degrees for the Twin Cities on May 20.

European model (ECMWF) temperature forecast 1 pm Wednesday May 20
European model (ECMWF) temperature forecast 1 pm Wednesday May 20
ECMWF via pivotal weather

Humid, too

Check out the dew point readings next week. NOAA’s GFS model pumps dew point into the 60s and 70s into Minnesota as early as Monday evening.

NOAA GFS model dew point output for 7 pm Monday May 18
NOAA GFS model dew point output for 7 p.m. May 18.
NOAA via tropical tidbits

Warmth here to stay?

Temperatures may moderate again later next week. But the medium-range temperatures outlooks favor warmer than average temperatures overall through the Memorial Day weekend.

NOAA 8 to 14-day temperature outlook
NOAA eight- to 14-day temperature outlook
NOAA

We’re due.