Midnight thunder? Pleasant Friday and Saturday ahead

Short range models suggest overnight thunderstorms

You may hear a little midnight thunder in parts of Minnesota.

Some short-range forecast models favor a broken line of thunderstorms crossing Minnesota overnight into early Friday morning. NOAA’s HRRR model depicts showers and thunderstorms near Fargo, N.D., by around 7 p.m., passing the Twin Cities between midnight and 2 a.m. local time.

NOAA HRRR model between 7 pm and 4 am Friday
NOAA HRRR model between 7 p.m. Thursday and 4 a.m. Friday.
NOAA via tropical tidbits

Severe risk south

The highest risk for any severe weather is across southern Minnesota overnight. A slight risk includes the Interstate 90 corridor. A marginal (low) risk includes the Twin Cities metro area.

Severe weather risk areas
Severe weather risk areas into early Friday
NOAA/Twin Cities National Weather Service

Nice start to the weekend

Friday and Saturday look mainly sunny and mild across Minnesota. Highs reach the low 80s in southern Minnesota, with 70s up north.

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Forecast high temperatures Friday
Forecast high temperatures Friday
NOAA

Tropical Storm Cristobal moisture next week?

Tropical Storm Cristobal continues to be a threat to the Gulf Coast late Sunday or Monday.

Some models bring the storm to near hurricane intensity before landfall.

Tropical Storm Cristobal model intensity forecasts
Tropical Storm Cristobal model intensity forecasts
NOAA via tropical tidbits

Cristobal’s moisture will push north up the Mississippi River Valley early next week. That injection of tropical moisture will enhance rainfall totals in parts of the Midwest next week.

Watch how the Canadian model below pushes Cristobal’s moisture up the Mississippi River Valley, then watch how it is absorbed and enhances another low-pressure system over the Upper Midwest next week.

Canadian model through next Wednesday
Canadian model through next Wednesday
Environment Canada via tropical tidbits

The Canadian model is among the most aggressive with potential rainfall totals for Minnesota next week. It cranks out heavy multi-inch rainfall totals for Minnesota.

Canadian model precipitation output into next Friday
Canadian model precipitation output into next Friday
Environment Canada via pivotal weather

Stay tuned as we watch the moisture plume from Cristobal push north next week.