Tracking Cristobal: Unprecedented storm track, heavy rainfall ahead
Tropical Depression Cristobal likely the first post-topical cyclone to cross Lake Superior
Tropical Storm Cristobal made landfall near Grand Isle, Louisana Sunday night. The storm brought heavy rainfall to the Gulf Coast as expected.
Cristobal’s storm surge at Shell Beach, LA exceeded 5 feet.
Now Cristobal appears ready to do the unprecedented. The system is forecast to take the most westward track of any tropical system on record. That will bring very unusual weather to the Upper Midwest Tuesday and Wednesday.
Unprecendented storm track
Cristobal is now a tropical depression moving north near Little Rock, Arkansas today. Cristobal will lose some tropical characteristics and transition to a post-tropical cyclone by tomorrow. The official National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast storm track brings post-tropical cyclone Cristobal through the eastern tip of Iowa into Wisconsin and Lake Superior over the next 2 days.
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If Cristobal takes this western track, it will be the furthest west a post-tropical system has tracked across the Upper Midwest. It will also be the first time a once-tropical cyclone has crossed Lake Superior.
Upper Midwest soaking
Moisture from Cristobal will merge Tuesday with a system crossing Minnesota. The systems will pool moisture and that will enhance rainfall intensity across Minnesota and Wisconsin. Heavy rainfall bands from the combined systems are likely Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday.
NOAA’s GFS model shows the two systems merging as heavy rain bands erupt within the evolving system.
Multi-inch rainfall totals
Most forecast models paint widespread 1 to 2 inches or more of rainfall totals across our region. But many crank out localized zones of 2 inches to as much as 6 inches of rainfall by late Wednesday. A few models favor the eastern Twin Cities into western Wisconsin and northeast Minnesota for the heaviest rainfall zones.
Flash flood watches are already up for southeast Minnesota and parts of Wisconsin. Additional watches are likely.
Stay tuned, this looks like an evolving heavy rainfall scenario for our region Tuesday into Wednesday.