Hot front: 100 degrees possible in Minnesota next week?

Medium-range forecasts suggest more frequent hot spells in the next 2-3 weeks

European model (ECMWF) temperature forecast 1 pm Wednesday June 17
European model (ECMWF) temperature forecast 1 pm Wednesday, June 17
ECMWF via pivotal weather

I’m beginning to see signs this could evolve into the hot summer of 2020.

  • Exhibit 1: June is already running more than 9 degrees warmer than average in the Twin Cities.

  • Exhibit 2: We’ve already recorded three days with 90-degree heat in the Twin Cities. That surpasses the monthly average of two days for June.

  • Exhibit 3: Medium-range forecast models suggest another heatwave next week.

We catch a break the next few days with much more pleasant temperatures across Minnesota. Highs in the 70s (with 60s up north) will be common through the weekend.

Forecast high temperatures Saturday
Forecast high temperatures Friday
NOAA

Enjoy the free AC while it lasts.

Heat builds next week

The upper air forecast charts for next week favor a building ridge of high pressure aloft over the central and eastern U.S.

Upper air forecast map for 7 pm June 17
Upper air forecast map for 7 p.m. June 17.
NOAA

This “Bermuda High”-type pattern brings heat during the summer months. When it pushed far enough northward, highs into the 90s are common in Minnesota.

The European model is bullish on the magnitude of next week’s hot spell. The usually trusty Euro cranks out high temperatures around 100 degrees in the Twin Cities and much of central and southern Minnesota by next Wednesday.

European model (ECMWF) temperature forecast 1 pm Wednesday June 17
European model (ECMWF) temperature forecast 1 p.m. June 17.
ECMWF via pivotal weather

NOAA’s six-to-10 day outlook favors warmer than average temperatures overall.

NOAA 6 to 10-day temperature outlook
NOAA six-to-10-day temperature outlook
NOAA

Hot into July?

NOAA’s week 3-4 temperature outlook skews warm into early July.

NOAA week 3 and 4 temperature outlook
NOAA week 3 and 4 temperature outlook
NOAA

And NOAA’s CFS2 monthly temperature outlook for July also favors warmer than average temperatures across the Great Lakes and Upper Midwest.

NOAA CFS2 temperature outlook for July 2020
NOAA CFS2 temperature outlook for July 2020
NOAA

It’s been a while since we’ve had a memorably hot summer in Minnesota. I remember the unrelenting summer of 1988 when we recorded 44 days of 90-degree heat in the Twin Cities. The early signs this season point to increased odds for more frequent hot spells this summer.

Stay tuned.

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