Slight risk: A few storms could be severe through this evening

Storms will pack downpours, hail and high winds

We’re watching radars and satellites closely Thursday.

A cold front is cutting through a warm and humid air mass over Minnesota. Peeks of sun are warming the area ahead of the advancing front. That’s creating an unstable atmosphere capable of spawning a few severe storms.

NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center upgraded the severe risk over the Twin Cities and southern Minnesota from marginal to slight early Thursday.

Severe weather risk areas
Severe weather risk areas
Twin Cities National Weather Service

This is not the most volatile weather situation I’ve seen, but a few storms today could pack large hail and wind gusts of 58 mph or higher.

Storms are ongoing as of this post in southwest Minnesota. Forecast models push the storm zone east toward the Twin Cities and eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin late this afternoon into this evening. The most likely timing window for storms in the populated Twin Cities area is between 5 p.m. and 10 p.m.

NOAA NAM 3 km model  5 pm and 9 pm Thursday.
NOAA NAM 3 km model 5 p.m. and 9 p.m. Thursday.
NOAA via Weather Bell

Stay situationally aware of watches and possible warnings today and tonight. Remember you can see up to the second severe weather reports on the MPR live weather blog and on twitter @MPRWeather.

We will also have severe weather reports as needed on addition to my usual weather chats at 4:48 p.m. and 5:48 p.m. on MPR News stations.

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