Toasty July so far; heat eases through next week

Temperatures closer to July averages through next week

Sunset sailing on Lake Minnetonka
Sunset sailing on Lake Minnetonka in 2018
Paul Huttner/MPR News

The steamy summer of 2020 is off to a toasty start.

Temperatures in June ran 4 degrees warmer than average in the Twin Cities. So far, July is running 6.8 degrees warmer than average at the Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport.

We’ve logged nine days at or above 90 degrees in the Twin Cities so far this year. That’s close to our annual average of 11 days. The average high and low for the Twin Cities are 84 and 64 now through July 22.

Climatologically, we now enter the two warmest weeks of the year on average in Minnesota. They won’t be the warmest two weeks this year. The past two weeks were the sixth warmest such period on record. Temperatures hit or exceeded 90-degrees four times so far in July.

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The good weather news for heat-weary Minnesotans is the switch has flipped to a more typical July weather pattern for the next several days.

The forecast in one word? Glorious.

Typical July weekend

This weekend brings a typical weather pattern for July. Highs top out in the 80s in southern Minnesota with upper 70s up north.

Forecast high temperatures Sunday
Forecast high temperatures Sunday
NOAA

Overnight temperatures cool into the more comfortable 50s up north, and 60s south.

Forecast low temperatures Sunday
Forecast low temperatures Sunday
NOAA

A weak wave will drive a few scattered showers and thunderstorms favoring southwest Minnesota late Friday night and Saturday. The Twin Cities will ride the edge of the chance zone, we could see a couple scattered thundershowers Saturday but we’ll enjoy more dry hours than rain.

NOAA’s NAM 3 km resolution model captures the chaotic, random nature of scattered summer thunderstorms.

NOAA NAM 3 km model midnight to 4 pm Saturday
NOAA NAM 3 km model midnight to 4 pm Saturday
NOAA via tropical tidbits

Sunday looks blissfully sunny and pleasantly warm.

Warm bias through July

The longer range maps still favor a slight warm bias through July. Right now I don’t see any more 90-degree runs in sight, but temperatures trends favor slightly above average temperatures overall for the rest of this month.

NOAA 8 to 14-day temperature outlook
NOAA eight- to 14-day temperature outlook
NOAA

The dog days of summer are just around the corner.